Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for June 18. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+124) vs. Phillies
Mets at Phillies – 6:40 pm ET
Manaea comes into this start having had at least six strikeouts in two of his last four outings. The lefty now gets to face a Phillies lineup that has a 23.2% strikeout rate and 26.1% whiff percentage. This Philadelphia team has a bunch of very dangerous hitters, but they’re guys that can also strike out multiple times in the same game. Well, I expect Manaea to take advantage of that. Perhaps this won’t be a game in which he goes out and shuts his opponent down, but I see him putting a big dent in the K column while he’s out there.
Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-116) vs. White Sox
White Sox at Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
Weathers’ strikeout total feels way too low heading into tonight’s game. While the White Sox have been much better than expected this year, they do have a 23.9% strikeout rate when facing southpaws. Well, that seems problematic as Chicago faces Weathers. The lefty is averaging 6.2 strikeouts per game this year, and he has had at least six Ks in seven of his 13 starts. Weathers has some very impressive stuff, so I don’t see any reason he can’t cruise through this start. Even if he can’t, I can see him racking up strikeouts in a short stint on the mound.
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) vs. Giants
Giants at Braves – 7:15 pm ET
Earlier in the season, playing Olson Overs against righties was one of the few things that was working for me. Well, I went away from it for a while. Now, I’m ready to dip a toe back in. This season, Olson is averaging 2.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) per game when facing right-handed starters, and he’s facing another tonight. That would be Landen Roupp. The Giants starter is having a good year, but Olson has crushed him in the past. In eight at-bats against the righty, Olson has four hits, a double, and three RBIs. I like him to find success tonight.
Additional Picks
Sonny Gray Under 17.5 Outs (-103) vs. Blue Jays
Shane Drohan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts (+195 – 0.5 units) vs. Brewers
Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105) vs. Rangers
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) vs. Cardinals
Mike Trout Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-137) vs. Athletics
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
MJ Melendez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-142) vs. Phillies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.68 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -436 — a +22.7% edge to the Over.
Tristan Gray Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-139) vs. Rangers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.58 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -386 — a +21.3% edge to the Over.
Stuart Fairchild Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-131) vs. Brewers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him projected for 1.48 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -339 — a +20.5% edge to the Over.
