The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, June 18, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 459-437 (51.2%) for +22.69 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.5%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+105 vs MIN)

Trend: PHI is 4-13 (-10.86 units) in the last 17 vs NY Mets with starter Aaron Nola
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-126 vs NYM)

* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 164-163 (-64.79 units, ROI: -19.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-163 vs CWS)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 124-99 for -5.02 units and an ROI of -2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-126 vs TOR), NY METS (+104 at PHI), LA ANGELS (+114 at ATH)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a GO AGAINST angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 23-21 for –3.89 units (ROI -8.8%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (-126 at TEX)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 82-98 for +9.84 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-105 at KC)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 144-178 for -18.09 units. This ROI of -5.4% is still highly advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+105 vs MIN), NY METS (+104 at PHI), ST LOUIS (-105 at KC), LA ANGELS (+114 at ATH)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 124-76 for +33.59 units, an ROI of +16.8%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-126 vs TOR)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 91-111 start for -13.86 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 39-52 for -12.17 units and an ROI of -13.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TORONTO (+104 at BOS)
3-games – MINNESOTA (-126 at TEX), SAN FRANCISCO (+119 at ATL)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 443-467 but for +28.57 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-126 vs TOR), ATLANTA (-144 vs SF)

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 738-971 but for +20.70 units and an ROI of 1.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+104 at BOS), CLEVELAND (+130 at MIL), BALTIMORE (+123 at SEA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (+119 at ATL)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 415-357 but for -89.49 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-115 vs STL)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 437-387 record for +45.09 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+104 at PHI)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 693-805 record but for +19.12 units and an ROI of 1.3% since the start of the 2022_ season
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+130 at MIL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 459-437 (51.2%) for +22.69 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.5%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+105 vs MIN)

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2103-1995 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -273.91 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-126 at TEX), NY METS (+104 at PHI), MILWAUKEE (-157 vs CLE), NY YANKEES (-163 vs CWS)

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2135-2707 (44.1%) for -267.57 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-105 at KC), LA ANGELS (+114 at ATH)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 381-192 (66.5%) for +52.15 units and an ROI of 9.1%!
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-115 vs STL)

Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, HOME teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 62-36-5 (63.3%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 32-9 OVER streak in L41).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-NYY (o/u at 9.5)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 346-306 (53.1%) for +24.87 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+105 vs MIN), ATHLETICS (-137 vs LAA)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), UNDERDOGS between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 225-259 SU but for +46.95 units (ROI: 9.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR LA ANGELS at ATH (+114 CURRENTLY)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, INTERLEAGUE PLUS-MONEY UNDERDOGS who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 49-36 SU for +21.39 units (ROI: 25.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ST LOUIS at KC (-105 CURRENTLY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 164-163 (-64.79 units, ROI: -19.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-163 vs CWS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: LA ANGELS +114 (+16 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: PHILADELPHIA -125 (+18 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIN-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.9), SF-ATL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), BAL-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LAA-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-0.8), TOR-BOS UNDER 9 (-0.7), CWS-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-0.7)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) NEW YORK-NL (33-41) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (40-34)
Trend: Sean Manaea’s teams are 8-12 (-8.79 units) when he starts against NL East opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+104 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 4-13 (-10.86 units) in L17 vs NY Mets with starter Aaron Nola
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-126 vs NYM)

(903) SAN FRANCISCO (31-43) at (904) ATLANTA (46-27)
Trend: Under the total is 20-12-3 (+6.80 units) in ATL home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-ATL (o/u at 7.5)

(909) BALTIMORE (35-40) at (910) SEATTLE (38-37)
Trend: Over the total is 21-11-2 (+8.90 units) in BAL day games this season
Trend: Over the total is 17-10-1 (+6.00 units) in SEA day games this season
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-BAL (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: SEA is 24-6 (+15.34 units) in HOME games with starter Bryan Woo since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-149 vs BAL)

(913) LOS ANGELES-AL (30-45) at (914) ATHLETICS (36-38)
Trend: ATH is 12-20 (-10.46 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-1.5 vs LAA)

(915) CLEVELAND (39-35) at (916) MILWAUKEE (45-26)
Trend: MIL is 18-9 (+12.12 units) on the run line in DAY games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs CLE)

(917) ST LOUIS (40-32) at (918) KANSAS CITY (30-45)
Trend: KC has a 0-3 record vs St Louis with starter Noah Cameron in his career
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-115 vs STL)

(919) TORONTO (36-38) at (920) BOSTON (29-42)
Trend: TOR is 12-19 (-10.54 units) on the run line in DAY games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+1.5 at BOS)

Series #30: Toronto at Boston, Tue 6/16-Thu 6/18
Trend: UNDERDOGS are on a 29-16 (64.4%, +20.54 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
– The ROI on this trend is 45.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+104 at BOS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-144 vs SF), ATHLETICS (-137 vs LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not TOO MANY of them hop on an UNDERDOG side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): NY METS (+104 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at NYY)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in INTERLEAGUE GAMES since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-157 vs CLE), ST LOUIS (-105 at KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for UNDER the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-BOS (o/u at 9)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, June 22)

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