With two division rivalries on the AL side of the playoffs, we have a lot of regular-season data points to go off of to help us handicap the series. On the NL side, we don’t get that luxury, as the Braves vs. Dodgers features two division champs, something else we don’t have in the Junior Circuit, and Padres vs. Brewers. The Braves vs. Dodgers series is the first one to get going on Saturday afternoon and it’s fair to wonder if getting over the hump for the first time in a long time could help Atlanta.
The Braves hadn’t won a playoff series since they won the World Series back in 2021. They missed the postseason last year, finishing with their worst record since 2017, but bounced back this season to go 94-68 and win the NL East once again. Over their three previous playoff engagements, Atlanta had lost twice in the NLDS in four games and once in a Wild Card sweep back in 2024.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are looking for a three-peat with the best team that money can buy. The highest payroll in the league is navigating a bunch of deferred salaries that will pay players probably until the time the machines rise up and AI kills off the human race, but that plan has worked out, as they’ve won consecutive titles and are looking to become the first team to three-peat since the 1949-53 Yankees, who won five World Series in a row in that span. Back then, only two teams made the playoffs and the World Series was the only postseason series.
Braves vs. Dodgers NLDS Odds
Dodgers -230 // Braves +190
Total Games: 4.5 (+160/-190)
Braves vs. Dodgers NLDS Schedule
Game 1 @ LAD: Saturday, October 3, 4 p.m. ET (FOX)
Game 2 @ LAD: Sunday, October 4, 8 p.m. ET (FS1)
Game 3 @ ATL: Tuesday, October 6, 6 p.m. ET (FS1)
Game 4 @ ATL: Wednesday, October 7, 6 p.m. ET (FS1) – if necessary
Game 5 @ LAD: Friday, October 9, 8 p.m. ET (FOX) – if necessary
Braves vs. Dodgers Offense
Edge: Dodgers
Atlanta’s offense struggled for long stretches of the season, ultimately finishing just 20th in wOBA at .314 with a 97 wRC+, so they were technically a below average offense when adjusted for park factor and the league’s scoring environment. That was not the case for the Dodgers, who had a 111 wRC+ and were second in the league with a .334 wOBA.
If we cut the sample size down to just the second half, the Dodgers were fifth in wOBA at .326 and had a 105 wRC+, while the Braves were 19th at .312 with a 96 wRC+. When you consider that a 100 wRC+ is league average, even a step back from the LA offense had them better than the median, while the Braves, who didn’t walk much, were not. That said, Atlanta did hit 83 homers in the second half to LA’s 77.
Looking at just September, the Dodgers had a .349 wOBA with a 121 wRC+. I’m not terribly surprised to see this team care when it started to matter more. They also carried a 12.2% BB% that month with a sub-20% K%. Load management was definitely a thing, more so for the pitching staff, all season long for LA. They did err on the side of caution with Shohei Ohtani throughout a good chunk of the second half and that will be a storyline for this series, as the lineup is far more dangerous with him in it and producing.
Meanwhile, the Braves got even worse offensively in September, posting just an 88 wRC+. They once again didn’t walk much, only stole eight bases, and had just a .268 BABIP.
From a contact quality standpoint, the teams were in lockstep, as the Braves had an 8.6% Barrel% that ranked fifth and the Dodgers were also at 8.6%, but percentage points lower, so they finished sixth. The Dodgers had a 39.6% Hard Hit% and the Braves had a 39.8% Hard Hit%. The Dodgers had a 12.2% HR/FB% and the Braves a 12.0% HR/FB%. So what were the key differences? The higher walk rate for the Dodgers made a huge difference. Also, the Dodgers hit more line drives and fewer pop-ups to give themselves more chances at hits and a higher batting average on balls in play.
Braves vs. Dodgers Pitching
Edge: Dodgers
In their quest to three-peat, the Dodgers picked up Tarik Skubal from the Tigers at the Trade Deadline, so they just casually added one of the best pitchers on the planet to an already-loaded staff. And he won’t even be their Game 1 starter in all likelihood. That distinction is expected to go to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was brilliant again this season with a 2.53 ERA, 2.94 xERA, and a 3.33 FIP over 185 innings of work.
Eight different pitchers started at least 10 games for the Dodgers and the worst guys by ERA, Roki Sasaki (4.49) and Emmet Sheehan (4.57) will simply slot into relief roles here, pushing Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell into starting spots if need be. Glasnow and Snell combined for 22 regular-season starts. Justin Wrobleski, who will be another bullpen weapon, was second on the team with 140 innings and he had a 3.66 ERA with a 4.52 xERA and a 4.14 FIP.
So, the Dodgers are shortening their rotation, putting in Glasnow, who has a 2.86 xERA and a 2.74 FIP in place of guys who had ERAs and run estimators north of 4, and also Skubal, who had a 2.61 ERA in 10 starts with the club. And when you consider the guys who will slot into middle relief roles now that were average to above average starters, the phrase “embarrassment of riches” comes to mind.
Does Atlanta have any hope of competing in this category? Well, Chris Sale is pretty damn good, but he was used in Game 1 of the Wild Card and then threw 21 pitches in Game 3, so we’ll see when he’s able to take a turn in the rotation. The BRaves are going to have to try and cobble something together early in this series, much like they did sending out Ray Kerr as the Game 3 starter with Grant Holmes in a bulk supporting role.
Atlanta did boast a really good bullpen during the season, so if they do have leads to protect, they very well could. Dylan Lee’s appearance in Game 2 against the Phillies didn’t go well, but he had a 3.09 ERA with a 2.64 xERA and a 2.15 FIP during the regular season. Raisel Iglesias was a reliable closer with 34 saves and a 2.55 ERA. But, on the whole, the Braves do lack rotation depth in a big way, through no fault of their own, really, as Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach both getting hurt made things difficult. Nevertheless, the Dodgers have a huge edge here.
Braves vs. Dodgers Miscellaneous Notes
Both teams were above average defensively per Outs Above Average, but the Braves were 11 OAA better than the Dodgers, accounting for nine more runs prevented. In a series where Atlanta faces several disadvantages, playing a crisp series defensively is tremendously important.
I could really keep harping on this point a lot. The Dodgers had a 10.1% BB% with a 20.4% K%. The Braves had a 7.7% BB% that was 28th in baseball. They had a 21.6% K%, so even with fewer deep counts, Atlanta still struck out more often. The Phillies and Cubs were the two losers with a higher BB% than their opponents in the Wild Card round, but the Cubs only batted .129. The Phillies only walked four times. Incredibly, the Braves walked 12 times in the three games against Philly, so maybe they’ll be a more patient lineup here in the postseason.
Braves vs. Dodgers NLDS Prediction
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 Games (+120)
I think this series is over in three or four games. The depth of the Dodgers pitching staff is just something that Atlanta cannot match up against. Atlanta did win five of the six regular-season meetings, outscoring the Dodgers 26-15, but none of those games were started by Skubal and the one start for Yamamoto had him go 6.1 innings with one run allowed on four hits. Also, we all know a team like the Dodgers can flip that switch any time. They did go 18-7 in September to get to 100 wins again.
It’s just a big ask for Atlanta with guys like Tyler Mahle and Holmes featuring more prominently in this series because of Sale’s start and relief effort in the Wild Card Round. Sale could be probably be lined up to go on Sunday at Dodger Stadium and then come back on Friday in Game 5, but I don’t even think we’ll get to a Game 5.
Other series previews: White Sox/Guardians | Yankees/Rays | Padres/Brewers
