Dodgers vs. Brewers
The NLCS is probably what it should be, right? The two teams with the best records in the Senior Circuit will square off in a rematch of last year’s NLCS to see which one will go to the World Series. The Dodgers and the Brewers were the only two teams in the NL with 100+ wins, as Milwaukee had a three-game edge for the No. 1 seed, thus the Brewers have home-field advantage in this series. They did last season, too, and lost in five games. We begin with Tarik Skubal vs. Jacob Misiorowski and if that’s not a pitching matchup worthy of Game 1 of a League Championship Series, I don’t know what is.
Dodgers vs. Brewers (-113, 6) Prediction
8 p.m. ET (FOX/FS1)
Dodgers-Brewers Series Preview
Is this line going to hold where it is? I think that’s a really fair question to ask here given how rare it is to see Skubal as an underdog. Skubal has not been an underdog since March 27, 2025 when his Tigers went up against now-teammate Blake Snell and the Dodgers. He was an underdog multiple times in 2024, but not an underdog at all here in 2026.
If the favorite does flip, Misiorowski was an underdog twice this season, winning a May 8 game against the Yankees with Max Fried on the other side and losing on April 7 to the Red Sox and Garrett Crochet. To be honest, I’m a bit surprised that Miz and the Brewers are favored. Obviously I am extremely impressed with the NL Cy Young Award winner, but pitch efficiency is a question for him in the postseason environment when he’s (in theory) only facing good offenses.
Miz needed 88 pitches to record 12 outs in his Game 1 start against the Padres. His team did win 3-2, and both runs were charged to him, but San Diego had 30 foul balls out of the 64 strikes. Misiorowski still struck out six and only walked one, but left five innings for the bullpen to complete. They did with three walks and five hits allowed, but didn’t give up a run.
Miz only faced the Dodgers once and did so on the road back on August 15 and allowed one run on five hits in six innings with six strikeouts and a walk. As we know, though, the Dodgers can lock in whenever they want to and they seem to get pretty locked in when October rolls around. Nobody throws as hard as Miz, but for the sake of argument, we’ll call 98+ mph premier velocity. The Dodgers were fifth in BA at .230, sixth in SLG at .356, and eighth in wOBA at .298. The Padres were seventh in wOBA, eighth in SLG, and fourth in BA and they worked Misiorowski hard last time out.
You know who else throws pretty damn hard? Tarik Skubal. Skubal’s first postseason start with the Dodgers was about what you would expect. Six innings in control with a solo homer and just one other hit allowed with seven strikeouts against two walks. He averaged 98.1 mph with the fastball, up 1.3 mph from the regular season and he maintained that velocity uptick over the six innings. He generated 13 Whiffs, eight of them on his changeup.
If we’re going to assume Skubal’s velo uptick hangs around, the Brewers were 14th in BA at .211, 23rd in SLG at .276, and 17th in wOBA at .272 against 98+ mph pitches. The Brewers were 13th in wOBA against LHP for the season, ninth in the second half, and 14th over the final month of the season. Skubal is obviously not your run-of-the-mill southpaw. Misiorowski is one of the best righties on the planet. So, I don’t know how much looking at the splits matters here given how much better than average these two guys are.
Ultimately, I am on the Dodgers here. The lineup has more power potential in a game where runs are likely to be at a premium. Furthermore, Skubal is more likely to get deeper into the ballgame, whereas the Brewers are likely to have to deploy some of their middle-relief arms as Miz’s pitch count rises. The one weakness for the Brewers, at least as far as I’m concerned, is in the middle of their bullpen.
Pick: Dodgers -107
