The Dodgers vs. Brewers series is going to be billed as Goliath vs. David, but David is at home, had the best record in the regular season, and just beat a Padres team that had one of the best offenses in baseball down the stretch. The odds may not be stacked against Milwaukee as much as some believe, even if Major League Baseball’s extremely imbalanced financial structure is.
Per Cot’s Contracts, the Brewers have a Year End 40-man Payroll of $144.5 million. The Dodgers? Second in the league at $339.6 million, and they’re only really second because of all of their deferred contracts. From a Collective Bargaining Tax standpoint, their 40-man roster cost of $432.8 million is laughably large compared to Milwaukee’s $154.7 million or Tampa Bay’s $112.9 million, as one of the two ALCS teams.
Money doesn’t always buy wins, but it often buys wins in the postseason. Way back in our 2026 MLB Betting Guide, we looked at the payroll ranks of the World Series winner and loser dating back to 2012. The average payroll rank for World Series winners in that span was sixth at $218.4 million. Only three teams outside of the top 10 in payroll have won in that span and one was 11th. The Dodgers, of course, are the two-time reigning champs with the highest payroll in both of those seasons. The Yankees and Blue Jays were third and fifth, respectively, as runners-up.
A team not on that list as a World Series winner or loser dating back to 2012? The Brewers, who have made the playoffs in eight of the last nine seasons and this is just their third NLCS trip in that time. They lost in seven games back in 2018 and got swept last season by the Dodgers, scoring exactly one run in each game.
Is there any reason to believe that the 2026 NLCS will play out differently?
Dodgers vs. Brewers NLCS Odds
Dodgers -175 // Brewers +145
Total Games: 5.5 (-175/+145)
Dodgers vs. Brewers NLCS Schedule
Game 1 @ MIL: Sunday, October 11, TBD ET (FOX/FS1)
Game 2 @ MIL: Monday, October 12, TBD ET (FOX/FS1)
Game 3 @ LAD: Wednesday, October 14, TBD ET (FOX/FS1)
Game 4 @ LAD: Thursday, October 15, TBD ET (FOX/FS1)
Game 5 @ LAD: Friday, October 16, TBD ET (FOX/FS1) – if necessary
Game 6 @ MIL: Sunday, October 18, TBD ET (FOX/FS1) – if necessary
Game 7 @ MIL: Monday, October 19, TBD ET (FOX/FS1) – if necessary
Dodgers vs. Brewers Offense
Edge: Dodgers
I’ve often said that the Brewers, who are deep, talented, and often play mistake-free baseball, are a team built for the grind of 162, but are not built for October. It may not seem like a lot, but the Dodgers hit 50 more homers than the Brewers in the regular season. Milwaukee’s 154 homers were tied for 28th. While not potent from a home run standpoint, the Brewers were fifth in doubles with 279. The Dodgers were eighth with 266. And, even without the home runs, the Brewers scored 31 more runs, including 90 more stolen bases.
Not all series are created equal and this year’s Brewers lineup is better than last season’s, but Milwaukee slashed just .118/.191/.193 against the Dodgers in last year’s NLCS with 41 strikeouts against 11 walks. Those games were started by Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Ohtani, who threw six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts, won’t be pitching in this series, but Tarik Skubal takes his place, so, yeah.
LA hit .250/.347/.461 in the series with six homers and seven doubles. The Brewers had one homer and four doubles, two of them from Caleb Durbin, who is now with the Red Sox. The other thing that makes it so difficult for Milwaukee and any other team hoping for something special in October is that the Dodgers are now fully engaged. I don’t think we can say that over the course of the regular season, as this team has one objective and that’s to make the playoffs. They can do that sleepwalking through the season if they’d like.
In essence, the Dodgers are the same team. Are the Brewers? Not entirely. Last year’s team had a 9.1% BB% and this year’s team had a 10.6% BB% to lead the league. The 2026 version also saw a modest uptick in Barrel% and Hard Hit%. Last season’s team was a better baserunning group per FanGraphs’ all-encompassing BsR metric, as the Brewers led the league with 15 baserunning runs above average compared to 7.8 this season. They stole two fewer bases, but the metric wasn’t as kind about their performance year over year.
But, there are two components to baserunning. The first is simply getting on base. The second is getting on base with enough frequency that you feel like you can be aggressive in trying to steal bags or take extra bases. Milwaukee had 14 hits in 36 innings in last year’s NLCS and drew 11 walks. I don’t think 0.7 baserunners per inning is going to create the opportunity to be aggressive.
Dodgers vs. Brewers Pitching
Slight Edge: Dodgers
I give the Dodgers a slight edge here because of the depth of their starting rotation. Slight might be trying to paint too optimistic of a picture for the Brewers, but they do have the NL Cy Young Award winner on the bump in Game 1 and he’s fully rested after not being needed for Game 5 in the NLDS. I actually thought Jacob Misiorowski might be called upon to hold Milwaukee’s tight lead in Game 4, but he wasn’t, so he’s all systems go here.
Last season, the Brewers got two starts from Aaron Ashby in an opener capacity against the Dodgers along with starts from Freddy Peralta and Jose Quintana. Misiorowski was used for five innings in bulk relief and was excellent. Logan Henderson was not used at all. In that regard, the Brewers are much better equipped to take a run at the Dodgers here.
Milwaukee (3.51) was one of three teams with a lower ERA than the Dodgers (3.60), though the Dodgers did have the lower xERA and lower FIP between the two teams. Even with various injuries and load management, the Dodgers (3.43) had a lower starter ERA (3.61) and had the lower xERA and FIP. That said, guys like Shane Drohan (5.07 ERA), Brandon Sproat (5.20), and Dustin May (5.65) shouldn’t get any starts here. The Brewers opted to give May a start in the NLDS, but I don’t think I’d go that route here. I’d take my chances with Robert Gasser and a bullpen game led by DL Hall or Chad Patrick or something. May gives up a lot of home runs and walks.
Because of how the two teams ended their respective series in three games, we’re going to get Skubal vs. Misiorowski in Game 1 and that’s just going to be incredible theater. I would presume we see Snell vs. Henderson in Game 2, with Yamamoto in Game 3 and then Glasnow in Game 4, probably against Johnny Wholestaff situations for Milwaukee.
The Brewers had the lower bullpen ERA (3.40), but the Dodgers (3.74) had the slightly lower FIP by 0.02 runs. One of the potential downsides in this series is that the Brewers probably won’t get as much length as the Dodgers will. Aaron Ashby, Trevor Megill, and Abner Uribe have worked a lot. Uribe threw 3.2 innings over four games against the Padres, while Ashby and Megill each threw in three of the four games.
Edwin Diaz and Tanner Scott worked three of the four games against the Braves, but they seem to have more trusted relief options than the Brewers. To pull off the upset, I think Milwaukee is going to need valuable and meaningful innings from DL Hall and Antonio Senzatela. Hall did have a 1.97 ERA during the regular season with a 3.32 xERA and a 3.88 FIP. Senzatela struggled after coming over from the Rockies. Grant Anderson’s injury could loom large in this series because he’s a prototypical mid-leverage right-hander and Milwaukee doesn’t have one right now if Senzatela is not that guy.
Dodgers vs. Brewers Miscellaneous Notes
Subjectively, I think that the Brewers won’t be as caught in the moment as they were last season against the Dodgers. This is a team that feels like they belong in these types of series now. They’re a young team because of the way that they have to recycle players as they start to make more money like any other small/mid-market team. Trevor Megill is the only 30+ prominent pitcher we will see. Christian Yelich is the elder statesman on offense at 34, but Gary Sanchez and Jake Bauers are the only other 30+ guys.
The Brewers were slightly better by Outs Above Average than the Dodgers, posting a +18 mark in that department while LA was +16. The Dodgers probably have the better tandem behind the plate from a framing standpoint, but the Brewers were far more successful controlling the running game.
Dodgers vs. Brewers NLCS Prediction
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 Games (+120)
I don’t hate the Dodgers. I don’t hate what they are doing. I hate MLB for giving them a loophole and not moving quickly enough to close the loopholes or balance the game’s financials. But, damnit, I’m rooting for the Brewers here. I’ve always admired how they do things. Organizations like the Rays and Guardians get a lot of credit for being innovative and for having executives in front offices all across the league, but the Brewers have done a ton of special things to sustain this incredible run of success.
Like last postseason, the run of success for 2026 probably does end here. The -175 price on the Dodgers probably seems unsavory to most, and I do think Dodgers -1.5 games at +120 is the best play that’s currently out there. If you really believe in the Dodgers dominating like they did last postseason, the Dodgers -2.5 games at +255 isn’t a bad way to look either.
I’m really, really hoping that the Brewers at least make this a very compelling and dramatic series. But, the big power disparity and the starting pitching depth in favor of LA has me concerned that we won’t get that out of this matchup for the second straight year.
Other series previews: White Sox/Guardians-Rays
