MLB Best Bets Today June 22
By Monday standards, we have a large schedule in Major League Baseball, as only a handful of teams have the day off. There are a wide variety of different pitchers on the mound, including some returning from injury or some that have recently come back, so it is a bit of a tough handicap in some of these games. But, there are a lot to choose from, so hopefully we can all choose wisely.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 22:
Dodgers vs. Twins Prediction
Pick: Twins 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+100)
To this point, the Dodgers have worked their magic with Eric Lauer, the journeyman left-hander who is eating up some innings while LA plays the load management game over the course of the regular season. Lauer has allowed just eight runs on 18 hits in 22.1 innings of work, allowing 1, 2, 2, 3 runs in his four starts.
But, the Twins are ripping southpaws of late, slashing .259/.355/.481 over their last 125 plate appearances with a .367 wOBA that ranks fifth. Lauer has a 3.22 ERA with a 4.26 xERA and a 5.57 FIP with the Dodgers, so there are lots of regression signs present, including his .206 BABIP and 94.1% LOB%. He has allowed at least one homer in each of his four starts as well. He also has only racked up 14 strikeouts of 88 batters, so the potential for regression looks a lot stronger with so many batted balls.
I think we could definitely see it come to fruition tonight.
Braves vs. Padres Prediction
Pick: 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-105); Over 7.5 (-110)
A couple of starters that appear to be damaged goods will square off here, as Grant Holmes and Michael King are listed for their respective teams. We’re at Petco Park, hence the total of 7.5, but I think we have the potential for runs tonight, at least early.
Let’s start with Holmes, who has a 4.33 ERA with a 4.73 xERA and a 5.28 FIP on the season, having allowed 13 homers in 14 starts. His 80.2% LOB% is doing a lot of heavy lifting still, but he’s gone a combined 5.2 innings in his last two starts with six runs allowed on 10 hits and just four strikeouts against five walks. He’s only lasted 67 and 55 pitches in those two outings with decreased velocity and he just had his lowest spin rates of the season pretty much across the board.
I think he’s definitely hurt and/or pitching through something, as he’s only had Chase Rates of 24.2% and 10.3% in those efforts.
Similarly, King had a 3.2% SwStr% last time out against the Cardinals and he’s been bad of late, posting a 6.41 ERA with a 7.50 xERA and a 6.44 FIP in his last five starts. He’s allowed 19 runs on 28 hits in 26.2 innings with just 14 strikeouts against 11 walks. His velo took a dive last start as well and he has allowed a 10.9% Barrel% in those last five outings.
These are two solid bullpens, so hopefully we can get a head start early, and I do think that we will, hence the play on the 1st 5 total as well.
