The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, June 22, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 36-7 (+19.04 units) when he starts vs AL Central opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-131 at DET)

CHICAGO WHITE SOX letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Detroit: 10-25 record (28.6%) for -15.08 units, ROI: -43.1%
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-108 vs CLE)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 438-391 record for +41.62 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+102 at WSH), MILWAUKEE (-157 at CIN), BALTIMORE (-163 at LAA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 43-72 for -35.54 units and an ROI of -30.9%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (+104 vs CHC), MIAMI (-131 vs TEX)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 83-102 for +6.98 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+130 vs MIL)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 38-19 for -4.91 units.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-194 vs KC)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 152-190 for -20.91 units. This ROI of -6.1% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+102 at WSH), NY METS (+104 vs CHC), ARIZONA (+119 at STL), ATLANTA (-109 at SD), LA ANGELS (+135 vs BAL)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 128-80 for +32.82 units, an ROI of +15.8%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-112 at CWS)
*WATCH FOR BOSTON at COL (-131 CURRENTLY) and MIAMI vs TEX (-131 CURRENTLY)*

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 94-112 start for -11.67 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 40-56 for -15.81 units and an ROI of -16.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (+130 vs MIL), MINNESOTA (+128 vs LAD), BALTIMORE (-163 at LAA)
3-games – DETROIT (+108 vs NYY)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 74-80 for +4.65 units.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-108 vs CLE)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 486-389 for +40.73 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+108 vs NYY), MIAMI (-131 vs TEX)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 235-178 for +17.94 units and an ROI of 4.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-125 at NYM), CLEVELAND (-112 at CWS)
*WATCH FOR NY YANKEES at DET (-131 CURRENTLY) and BOSTON at COL (-131 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 143-188 for -42.07 units and an ROI of -12.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+108 vs NYY), COLORADO (+108 vs BOS)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 418-357 but for -86.49 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-123 vs PHI), TORONTO (-126 vs HOU), ST LOUIS (-144 vs AZ)
*WATCH FOR CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs DET (-108 CURRENTLY) and SAN DIEGO vs ATL (-110 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 438-391 record for +41.62 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+102 at WSH), MILWAUKEE (-157 at CIN), BALTIMORE (-163 at LAA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,111-2,004 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -278.18 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, KANSAS CITY, LA ANGELS, BALTIMORE

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2139-2716 (44.1%) for -272.54 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, BOSTON

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 384-193 (66.6%) for +53.53 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-144 vs AZ)

Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 63-38-5 (62.4%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 33-11 Over streak in the last 44).
System Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-STL (o/u at 8.5)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 194-228 SU record for +41.29 units and an ROI of 9.8% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+159 at TB)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN DIEGO -110 (+24 diff), LA ANGELS +135 (+17)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -157 (+20 diff), BOSTON -131 (+17)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CLE-CWS OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NYY-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), PHI-WSH UNDER 10 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) PHILADELPHIA (42-35) at (902) WASHINGTON (40-38)
Trend: Over the total is 28-10-1 (+17.00 units) in WSH night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 10)

(905) CHICAGO-NL (40-37) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (34-43)
Trend: CHC is 35-16 (+12.02 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-125 at NYM)
Trend: NYM is 5-14 (-10.39 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+1.5 vs CHC)

(907) ARIZONA (39-38) at (908) ST LOUIS (41-34)
Trend: STL is 7-9 (-4.72 units) as a home favorite with starter Andre Pallante since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-144 vs AZ)

(909) ATLANTA (48-28) at (910) SAN DIEGO (39-37)
Trend: ATL is 32-21 (+15.06 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 at SD)

(911) NEW YORK-AL (46-30) at (912) DETROIT (33-44)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 36-7 (+19.04 units) when he starts vs AL Central opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-131 at DET)

(913) KANSAS CITY (32-46) at (914) TAMPA BAY (43-31)
Trend: KC is 3-11 (-6.10 units) as a +125 or more road underdog with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+159 at TB)

(915) HOUSTON (37-42) at (916) TORONTO (38-39)
Trend: Dylan Cease’s teams are 10-10 (-6.32 units) when he starts as a home night favorite since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-126 vs HOU)

(917) CLEVELAND (41-37) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (39-37)
Trend: CLE is 17-9 (+7.83 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-112 at CWS)

(919) BALTIMORE (37-42) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (32-47)
Trend: BAL is 16-5 (+9.79 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-163 at LAA)

(923) LOS ANGELES-NL (49-29) at (924) MINNESOTA (38-41)
Trend: Over the total is 27-11-4 (+14.90 units) in MIN night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-MIN (o/u at 9.5)

(925) BOSTON (31-44) at (926) COLORADO (30-48)
Trend: BOS is 19-32 (-9.95 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-1.5 at COL)

Series #25: Baltimore at LA Angels, Mon 6/22-Wed 6/24
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 22 of the last 28 games (78.6%, +16.43 units) against LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 58.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-163 at LAA)

Series #33: Milwaukee at Cincinnati, Mon 6/22-Wed 6/24
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 32-13 (71.1%, +16.99 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 37.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-157 at CIN)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, MIAMI, WASHINGTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, BOSTON, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-COL

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Letdown after series vs. DETROIT: 10-25 (28.6%) -15.08 units, ROI: -43.1%    
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-108 vs CLE)

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