WNBA Picks
Happy Monday! We cashed our only bet of the day yesterday as the Aces easily handled the Valkyries to cover the -3.5 for us. Monday has 4 games on the docket featuring the Chicago Sky visiting the Connecticut Sun, the Toronto Tempo traveling to Atlanta to face the Dream, Indiana hosting Phoenix, and Seattle hosting Dallas. Here are the TSI projections for Monday’s games.
Connecticut Sun (+3.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 168.5
The Sun has lost seven straight games, allowing 90 points per game in that span, with an average game grade of -9 (points below average). Chicago oddly has lost five in a row but is maybe playing their best basketball of the season? They’re averaging 95 points per game over their last 3, but unfortunately for them, the defense is giving up 96. TSI projects Sky -2.5 with a total of 174.5, as Sun home games have averaged about 5.5 more points than their away games, and the Sky’s last 3 games have gone about 8.5 points over expectation. I love the Over here.
Bet: Over 168.5 (Play to 170)
Atlanta Dream (-13.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 178
I’m not sure what Atlanta did after that loss to the Liberty on 6/11, but since then, they’re 3-0 and averaging 108 points per game while allowing “just” 91, with an average game grade of +16.5. Toronto is just 1-3 in their last four, giving up 99.5 points per game in that stretch with a game grade average of -12. TSI projects Atlanta -12.5 with a total of 188.5, so of course I love this Over as well. 12 of the last 16 WNBA games have gone over the total, for what that’s worth. Atlanta home games have averaged almost four points more per game than road games, while Toronto’s road games have staggeringly averaged 13 more points per game than their home games. They play no defense on the road, especially. I think Atlanta could score 110 points in this game, potentially.
Bet: Over 178 (Play to 180)
Indiana Fever (-6.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 177.5
Indiana lost back-to-back games to Atlanta, giving up 110.5 points per game in the process. Their last five games have an average game grade of -1, which isn’t great for a team with title aspirations. Phoenix is just 1-4 in its last five, but has almost a dead even point differential in that span with an average game grade of -1.5. TSI projects Fever -7 with a total of 179.5 in this game. Indiana has been 6.5 points better at home than on the road, although Phoenix has oddly been better on the road than at home. Indiana’s last five games have averaged 11.5 more total points than expected, so I don’t think the market can keep up with this downward-trending defense, as teams attack Caitlin Clark on that side more and more. The line has moved a bit, but I still like it at 177.5 or better.
Bet: Over 177.5 or better
Seattle Storm (+9.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 168.5
Seattle hasn’t won a game since May 24th, losing by an average of 86-74 in that span (10 games). Dallas is coming off a one-point win in what was otherwise a horrible performance against the Sky at home. TSI projects Dallas -6 with a total of 169 in this game. The issue I have with taking Seattle is that their average game grade over the last five is -9, while Dallas’s is +7.5, so these teams are not exactly playing single-digit-difference basketball right now. Seattle has been better at home and has actually played better against playoff-caliber teams, but I just don’t like the spot for them with Dallas getting a wake-up call from Chicago last game. I’m going to sit this one out.
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