MLB Best Bets Today April 18
Baseball fans will be treated to an all-day affair, as the first game starts at 1:35 p.m. ET and the last game starts at 9:38 p.m. ET, giving us 11+ hours of baseball on today’s schedule. There are a lot of intriguing pitching matchups and a wide variety of weather conditions, including the chance for some rain delays. It’s always important to examine the possibility of rain delays in the middle of a game, as you might be able to scoop some value on betting Unders with pitcher props.
The schedule is actually broken up nicely today as well, with three early starts, five in the middle, and then seven at 6 p.m. or later, giving everybody time to look things over in search of the best bets on the board.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 18:
Chicago White Sox at Athletics (-168, 9)
4:05 p.m. ET
The White Sox took care of business last night behind yet another strong outing from Davis Martin and they’ll hope that Erick Fedde can keep the train rolling today. Fedde allowed four runs on six hits in his first start of the season against Miami, but has allowed three runs on eight hits in two starts since. He’s walked one batter per start and struck out four batters per start, so it’s entirely possible that we could see some regression with all of those balls in play, but he’s pitching from ahead in the count and getting some weak contact on chases outside the zone.
The White Sox offense has its problems, but the group is one of 14 teams with a BB% in double digits. That could be a really good thing against Luis Severino, who has walked 16 over his 19.1 innings thus far. He has struck out 24 as well, including seven in each of his last three starts, but he comes into this one with a 5.59 ERA, 4.98 xERA, and a 4.50 FIP with the free passes and some loud contact.
Last time out against the Rangers, Severino allowed four Barrels and maintained his 50% Hard Hit%. Given that he’s walked at least three batters in every start, the hard contact is definitely a major concern since he’s been pitching with a lot of traffic on the bases.
Neither offense has really stood out much this season, as the White Sox are slashing .206/.295/.330 and the A’s are at .230/.307/.356, with weather being a factor for Chicago given some cold-weather games early in the season. They had a good offensive effort last night in better conditions and also got to the A’s bullpen, which now has a 4.70 ERA.
The A’s should win this game given the magnitude of the line, but I think they’re too big of a favorite with a pitching matchup that feels like it has the chance to swing Chicago’s way.
Pick: White Sox +138
Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins (-115, 7.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
The Brewers and Marlins both have wily vets on the hill today, as Milwaukee sends out Brandon Woodruff and Miami counters with Sandy Alcantara. A lot has been made of Alcantara’s start to the season, which features a 2.67 ERA with a 2.25 xERA and a 3.68 FIP over 30.1 innings of work. But, it should be noted that he’s only really been tested once and he failed that test badly.
The Tigers scored seven runs on 10 hits off of Alcantara last time out, bashing three homers in the process with a 62.5% Hard Hit% and three Barrels. Of the 24 batted ball events, 15 of them were hit at least 95 mph. Alcantara’s other three starts came against the Rockies, White Sox, and Reds, where he allowed just two earned runs on 10 hits in 24.1 innings of work. However, it needs to be said that those teams rank 29th, 30th, and 28th in wRC+. Detroit is 17th right now with a 100 wRC+, though they do have a .341 xwOBA with just a .316 wOBA, so they’re running a bit unlucky right now.
Milwaukee has a 102 wRC+, so this will technically be the best offense that Alcantara has faced thus far. He has just a .202 BABIP against and a 19% K%, so I would expect more hits to be coming his way, much like we saw in that start against the Tigers, where he only struck out 13.3% of opposing batters and allowed the 10 hits.
Woodruff has a 4.32 ERA, but a 2.81 xERA to go with a 4.29 FIP. He’s allowed three homers so far, which has definitely done a number on his FIP, as he has only walked three batters. He’s struck out 16 over 16.2 innings of work and loanDepot Park should be a decent venue for him as a fly ball pitcher. His 67.6% LOB% should be in line for some positive regression and his only bad start came at Fenway Park, where a lot of pitchers have bad starts.
The 33-year-old Woodruff will be called upon to try and give some length today, as the Brewers bullpen has had some heavy lifts of late, but they’ve won three in a row and the Marlins have gone the other way with three straight losses and defeats in seven of their last 10, not a surprising development with such a young team. I’ll roll with the Brewers here, as Pat Murphy does a great job leveraging his relievers and this looks to be a tough spot for Alcantara against the Milwaukee offense.
Pick: Brewers -105
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-136, 7)
7:15 p.m. ET
AL West rivals square off here with the Rangers and Mariners and a rematch of Apr. 7 between Nathan Eovaldi and George Kirby. Eovaldi and the Rangers got the best of Kirby and the Mariners in that one, escaping with a 3-2 victory. Kirby went eight innings and gave up three runs on six hits with no walks and four punchies, while Eovaldi went six innings with two runs on six hits, a couple walks, and seven punchies.
Eovaldi has a lot of positive regression signs in his profile. He gave up 11 runs in his first two starts, but has only allowed two runs over his last 13 innings. He’s got a 5.40 ERA, but a 3.80 xERA and a 3.20 xFIP. He allowed three homers in those first two starts, road efforts at Philly and Baltimore, and has only allowed one since.
In that start against Seattle, Eovaldi had his lowest average exit velo in a start this season and only allowed a 35.3% Hard Hit%. It’s also the only start this season in which he hasn’t allowed a Barrel. Kirby, on the other hand, probably could have been hit worse, as he allowed a 54.2% Hard Hit% and a couple of Barrels.
The Rangers, who had one of the league’s best bullpens last season, are doing it again this season, sitting second in ERA at 2.78. The Mariners pen has been terrific, too, with a 3.16 ERA. But, the Rangers offense has been significantly better than Seattle’s, slashing .240/.315/.399 compared to .209/.317/.329. Texas has a 104 wRC+, while Seattle has a 96 wRC+, and the “+” part means that park factor is incorporated, so the Mariners are graded on a curve because of how stingy T-Mobile Park is.
Another game here where the Mariners probably deserve to be favored, but I think they’re favored by too much based on all of the above factors.
Pick: Rangers +113
