MLB Best Bets Today June 25
Two early games get us going on Thursday, as a couple of business lunch specials go off in Tampa and Pittsburgh in the 12 p.m. ET hour. A West Coast version of a getaway day game follows in San Francisco with the A’s and Giants in the 12 p.m. PT hour. Our other six games for tonight are late, with the conclusions of some series and the starts of others, including the latest installment of Yankees vs. Red Sox.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 25:
Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction
Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+111)
If this loses, it is what it is, but the Red Sox are in such a miserable state right now. After blowing yesterday’s series finale in Denver, the team had quite an adventure. Their originally scheduled departure out of DEN was forced to return to the airport 43 minutes after takeoff. On a night full of severe weather in the Denver area, including tornado warnings, the team finally left after about a five-hour wait and landed at BOS at 5:04 a.m. ET.
That was the tail end of a six-game road trip to Seattle and Denver with no off day in between and now the Red Sox host the Yankees, who have to be licking their chops with a chance to further bury their hated rivals. Maybe this is a team-building moment and a good chance for Boston to overcome adversity, but with the way things are going this season, between the firing of Alex Cora and the record, I’m not sure that this group has that in them.
Oh, and Boston has to face Cam Schlittler, who has a 1.71 ERA with a 2.77 xERA and a 2.12 FIP over his 95 innings of work. He has allowed more than two runs in a start just once since mid-April. He’s only given up five homers, so you have to lock in and try to manufacture runs against him, which is hard with a 109/18 K/BB ratio.
Boston will send out Connelly Early, who has a 3.64 ERA with a 4.39 xERA and a 4.87 FIP, so there are some clear regression signs in the profile, including his 85.7% LOB%. The Yankees sport a .281/.328/.439 slash with a .336 wOBA and a 114 wRC+ against LHP over the last two weeks. While the Red Sox have also punished lefties, they rank 25th in wOBA at .305 and have a 87 wRC+ against RHP over the last 14 days. Not ideal facing Schlittler.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Over 9 (-105)
Keeping this super short because this game is likely to get postponed. Zac Gallen has a 6.10 ERA with a 5.69 xERA and a 4.97 FIP. His K% this season is down to 14.3%. Michael McGreevy has a 3.35 ERA, but a 5.69 xERA and a 4.42 FIP. His K% is just 15.9%. That looks like a ton of balls in play to me.
I mentioned Arizona’s disastrous results with RISP this month and yesterday and why they’re a play-on team. They scored nine runs yesterday and went 5-for-16 with RISP. They’ve always been generating chances, but just haven’t been able to cash in. I think they will do better with that as they move forward.
I didn’t want to let this one get by, but with the awful weather in Colorado yesterday moving into Missouri today, I fully expect this game to get rained out. But, I do like the bet if it does get played.
