Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12:35 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-150, 8.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Mariners (41-40) won the opener 3-2, taking care of business as -135 road favorites. Then the Pirates (40-40) bounced back with an 11-1 win yesterday, easily cashing as -115 home favorites.
In this early afternoon series finale, the Mariners tap righty Bryce Miller (3-1, 1.58 ERA) and the Pirates rebuttal with fellow righty Bubba Chandler (2-7, 4.62 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -140 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +120 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Mariners to earn a victory and take the series, driving Seattle up from -140 to -150, with some shops touching as high as -155.
At Circa, Seattle is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and a hefty 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy split in their favor from the Vegas sharps.
Seattle offers betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Miller has posted a 1.42 ERA in three June starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 19 innings pitched. Seattle is 4-1 in his last five starts.
Meanwhile, Chandler has posted a 4.09 ERA in four June starts, giving up 10 earned runs in 22 innings pitched. He has posted a 5.28 ERA at home compared 4.20 ERA on the road. Pittsburgh is 3-11 in his last 14 starts.
6:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers (-115, 9)
The Astros (39-43) just took two of three against the Blue Jays, winning yesterday’s series finale 3-1 as +120 road dogs. On the other hand, the Tigers (34-46) just dropped two of three against the Yankees, losing yesterday’s series finale 4-2 as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Astros hand the ball to righty Tatsuya Imai (4-3, 6.15 ERA) and the Tigers counter with fellow righty Troy Melton (4-0, 2.56 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -120 home favorite and Houston a +100 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the road dog Astros, as the line has fallen away from Detroit (-120 to -115) and toward Houston (+100 to -105). Essentially, smart Astros money has nudged this game down toward a pick’em.
At Circa, Houston is taking in only 29% of moneyline bets but a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Houston offers correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
The Astros have the better offense, hitting .243 with a .412 slugging percentage and 370 runs scored compared to the Tigers hitting .235 with a .392 slugging percentage and 324 runs scored.
Houston is hitting .251 on the road, tied for 4th best in MLB. Meanwhile Detroit is hitting .241 at home, ranking 21st.
7:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-160, 7.5) at Boston Red Sox
The Yankees (48-31) just took two of three against the Tigers, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-2 as +115 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox (32-46) just dropped two of three against the Rockies, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-6 as -165 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Yankees send out righty Cam Schlitter (8-3, 1.71 ERA) and the Red Sox go with lefty Connelly Early (6-5, 3.64 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -150 road favorite and Boston a +130 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the mildly expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Bronx Bombers, pushing New York up from -150 to -160, with some shops touching as high as -165.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of a Yankees victory at Fenway.
New York has the more productive bats, posting a .437 slugging percentage and 400 runs scored compared to Boston posting a .385 slugging percentage and only 307 runs scored.
The Yankees offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
New York is hitting .256 against lefties, 5th best in MLB. Conversely, Boston is hitting .234 against righties, ranking 25th.
Schlitter is 6-1 with a 1.12 ERA on the road this season.
Meanwhile, Early has posted a 5.66 ERA in four June starts, giving up 13 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched. He has a 4.82 ERA at home compared to 2.64 on the road.
The Yankees are 26-16 (62%) on the road, the 3rd best road team in MLB. On the other hand, the Red Sox are 12-25 (32%) at home, the worst home record in MLB.
