Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for June 25. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) vs. Tigers
Astros at Tigers – 6:40 pm ET
Alvarez is averaging 2.4 total bases per game when facing right-handed starters this year. He’s also averaging 2.6 total bases per game over the last 10 of those games. There’s no denying Alvarez has been a little up and down lately, but this is his preferred split, he’s playing in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight, and he’s going up against Troy Melton. I have nothing against Melton, who was pretty highly regarded in the Detroit organization. However, I do think this is a tricky matchup for a young starter. If you make a mistake against Alvarez, it’s going for an extra-base hit, at the very least.
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+102) vs. Nationals
Phillies at Nationals – 6:45 pm ET
Harper went 0 for 4 against the Nationals on Wednesday, but I like him to bounce back tonight. This season, Harper is batting .298 with 14 homers and 27 RBIs when facing right-handed pitching, plus he has a triple and 11 doubles. He should be very excited about getting to face another righty tonight, and he should be especially excited about it being Cade Cavalli. That’s a starter that carries a 5.23 ERA into this outing. I know Harper is only 1 for 9 against Cavalli in his career, but that’s a small sample size and I can see things changing in a big way. Also, that matchup history is the reason we’re getting plus-money odds.
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+113) vs. Mets
Cubs at Mets – 7:10 pm ET
Boyd has had at least five strikeouts in four of his five outings this year. The lefty also happens to be averaging 6.2 strikeouts per game, making it hard to understand how he’s listed at plus-money odds to simply go Over 4.5. It’s also not like this is the hardest matchup for him. New York has a strikeout rate of 22.4% and whiff percentage of 25.1%, so this is a team that can struggle to avoid strikeouts. The only reason I’m not going a little bigger on this is that it almost feels too good to be true.
Additional Picks
Bryce Miller Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102) vs. Pirates
Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-103) vs. Giants
Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102) vs. Red Sox
Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-158) vs. Cardinals
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Tatsuya Imai Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+103) vs. Tigers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 7.36 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -290 — a +25.1% edge to the Over.
James Outman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-142) vs. Astros
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.61 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -402 — a +21.4% edge to the Over.
Kameron Misner Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-114) vs. Rays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him projected for 1.37 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -292 — a +21.2% edge to the Over.
