MLB Best Bets Today April 28
A normal Tuesday is on tap in big league baseball, as all 30 teams are in action and every game is a night game. Not only that, but we only have one interleague game. It sure seems like we’ve had a ton of interleague action so far this season, doesn’t it? The Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, and Tigers have all played 18 interleague games already, while the Rays have played 15 and several teams have played 12. An odd choice given how weather can impact the early-season schedule.
In any event, Tigers vs. Braves is the lone interleague tilt down in The Battery and everybody else faces a league opponent. We have a very wide range of pitchers on the bump today, especially in the NL, where there are some very big favorites.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 28:
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians (-131, 7.5)
6:10 p.m. ET
We start in Cleveland, where a windy afternoon will give way to a calm evening by the lake. Nick Martinez gets the call for the Rays and Cleveland will counter with Tanner Bibee, who is off to a tough start this season. Bibee has a 4.45 ERA with a 4.62 xERA and a 4.65 FIP in his six starts covering 30.1 innings. His K% is down, his BB% is up, his HR/FB% is up, his BABIP is up, and his Hard Hit% is up compared to last season. Bibee has allowed a 53.2% Hard Hit% thus far and an average exit velo of 93.1 mph. He’s not commanding well at all and he’s been unable to put guys away with two strikes.
He’s only allowed two runs on nine hits in his last two starts, but he’s got an 8/5 K/BB ratio and has allowed 20 hard-hit balls out of 36 batted ball events. It seems like when he does have a good start, it’s more about sequencing luck than anything else. Somehow he’s buckled down from the stretch with a 13/2 K/BB ratio compared to a 13/9 K/BB with the bases empty.
Martinez is a changeup artist and the Guardians haven’t hit those since the 90s when they had the scariest lineup in baseball and were still called the Indians. He only has a 16.4% K% on the year and there are some regression signs in the numbers with a 2.10 ERA but a 4.65 xERA and a 3.90 FIP over 30 innings of work. But, he’s also a soft contact merchant with a 33% Hard Hit% this season and 33.2% for his career, coupled with a 6.8% Barrel%.
The Rays have gotten Martinez to leverage his CH more this season, as his usage rate of 27.6% is the second-highest of his career. Changeups often neutralize platoon splits. While lefties have hit slightly better than righties over the course of his career, he’s still had a moderate level of success against lefties. Cleveland will stack their lineup with those tonight and that doesn’t appear to be a good thing on paper.
Cleveland’s left-handed batters have faced the highest rate of changeups in the league at 13.3% and they’re batting .136 with a .214 SLG and a .186 wOBA. From an expected stats standpoint, their contact quality supports a .222 xBA with a .289 xSLG and a .250 xwOBA.
If we narrow that to right-handed pitchers against Cleveland’s left-handed batters, they are batting .129 with a .205 SLG and a .181 wOBA. From an expected stats standpoint, their contact quality supports a .229 xBA, .297 xSLG, and .258 xwOBA. The Guardians have 665 plate appearances of left-handed batters against right-handed pitchers and are slashing .216/.311/.360.
Add in a simply atrocious bullpen at this point in time, a pitcher in Bibee who hasn’t had the pitch efficiency or the third time through the order splits to work deep into games, and a bad starting pitcher matchup for the Cleveland lineup and I have to take a shot at the Rays at plus money here.
Pick: Rays +109
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds (-207, 9)
6:40 p.m. ET
Kyle Freeland is slated to come off of the IL and pitch for the Rockies today against the Reds. Cincinnati will counter with Chase Burns, but this start is about Freeland to me and playing Under 14.5 Outs Recorded at -123. It’s a low number on the prop and a little bit of a juicy number, but let’s walk through this.
Freeland threw a 41-pitch sim game last week while on the IL for a shoulder issue. He threw another bullpen on Saturday to get cleared to pitch here today. He didn’t make any rehab starts. I’m guessing we’re looking at 60ish pitches for Freeland, who won’t be pressured to go too far with a very well-rested longman in Tanner Gordon who made 15 starts covering 75.1 innings last season and has worked 16.1 innings over three Triple-A starts. This is a piggyback type of situation in my mind with the left-handed Freeland and the right-handed Gordon.
The Rockies also had Monday off for travel, so everybody in the bullpen is fresh, presumably why they set Freeland up to go today.
The Reds have a 25.3% K% and a 12% BB% against lefties in 249 plate appearances. They sit 12th in pitches per plate appearance overall at 3.93 and have the highest called strike percentage at 29.4%. They’re also sixth in 3-1 count percentage. I don’t know how sharp Freeland will be here, especially in a road start given the Coors Field Effect, and the Rockies all well-equipped to deal with a short start if need be.
I gave some thought to Under 3.5 Strikeouts as well, but ultimately, the Outs Recorded prop isn’t juiced heavily enough for me to stay away.
Pick: Kyle Freeland (COL) Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-123)
Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-186, 8)
7:10 p.m. ET
A couple of slumping offenses might get a dose of medicine today at Citi Field with this one between the Nationals and Mets. Over the last 14 days, the Nationals are 26th in wOBA at .294 and the Mets are 29th at .274. It’s been tough sledding for both teams, as the Nats have been buoyed by a .247 BABIP in that span and the Mets haven’t drawn enough walks and just haven’t performed well.
That being said, the Mets were also without Juan Soto for a good chunk of that. Now they’re without Francisco Lindor, but there are much bigger issues than that if they can’t hit Zack Littell today. Littell has allowed 23 runs on 34 hits in 25 innings of work. He’s only struck out 15 of the 117 batters that he’s faced and has allowed 11 home runs. Add it all up and he has a 7.56 ERA with a 7.99 xERA and an 8.61 FIP. That’s not good. At all.
The Nationals bullpen also stinks, posting a 5.27 ERA with a 5.28 xERA and a 5.53 FIP in 101 appearances thus far. That’s the 29th-ranked FIP in the league and 27th-ranked ERA. The Mets, despite what Devin Williams has produced this season, sit 10th in ERA as a relief corps, so that’s pretty good.
But, I am looking at a lot of regression signs for Clay Holmes. He enters this start as a pitch-to-contact, ground ball guy with a .207 BABIP against and an 89.9% LOB%. It is very hard to carry a high LOB% with a low strikeout rate and nobody will ever carry an 89.9% LOB% as a starting pitcher no matter what. He has a 2.10 ERA with a 4.22 xERA and a 4.26 FIP over 30 innings with just a 19/10 K/BB ratio.
Call me crazy, but I doubt he’ll keep running an .087 BA with a .134 wOBA against with men on base all season long. He’s allowed a .274/.366/.435 slash with the bases empty, so there’s a lot of what baseball handicapper and financial analyst Joe Peta would refer to as “Cluster Luck” in the profile for Holmes. (btw, check out his book Trading Bases – it’s a great read).
Defensively, the Mets have overperformed with Holmes out there relative to everybody else, as they are -1% in Success Rate Added by Outs Above Average as an infield overall, but +3% behind Holmes.
The weather conditions aren’t ideal for offense at Citi Field, but I also think that’s keeping this total down a little bit for us.
Pick: Over 8 (-101)
Kansas City Royals (-118, 9.5) at Athletics
9:40 p.m. ET
We head to Sactown for this one between the Royals and A’s, as Kris Bubic and Aaron Civale get this series underway. I’m primarily looking at a one-way handicap here and it is the A’s offense against Bubic.
Thus far, Bubic has a 4.08 ERA with a 4.76 xERA and a 3.83 FIP over his 28.2 innings of work. He has a .235 BABIP against and that’s an important point to remember here. He’s allowed 13 runs on 19 hits in 28.2 innings of work with a 29/13 K/BB ratio and three homers allowed. He’s actually showcased some nice swing-and-miss upside, but also has an 11.5% BB%.
Bubic’s velo is down this season and he’s become more of a fly ball pitcher with a 46.5% FB%. There should be some pretty good hitting conditions in Sacramento tonight, so I think that’s a big part of this handicap. But, the bigger part is when Bubic does induce ground balls. Remember that .235 BABIP against? Well, he has a .190 BA against with a .248 xBA. His 4.77 xERA ranks in the 32nd percentile. He has a .291 wOBA against with a .343 xwOBA and is running a .417 xwOBAcon, which is a sign of how much the swings and misses have really helped.
Then there’s also this. The Royals infield defense behind Bubic is +4 Outs Above Average. Their Estimated Success Rate based on batted ball data is 77%. Their actual Success Rate is 88%. That 11% difference in infield defense is the biggest in baseball per Statcast. He’s ripe for a lot of regression and this is a tough start in a place where road pitchers often struggle.
With that in mind, I like A’s 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs at +114, as well as A’s Team Total Over 4.5 Runs at +100, as the Royals rank 29th in bullpen ERA.
The Royals offense has woken up a little bit of late as well, as they’re slashing .261/.333/.436 over the last 14 days with a .340 wOBA. The A’s have a .342 wOBA in that span. Civale has made one start in Sacramento so far and allowed a 52.4% Hard Hit% and five runs on 11 hits in 4.2 innings of work. There isn’t a lot to like in his profile, as he’s got a 4.17 xERA with a 3.86 actual ERA, but his xBA ranks in the 29th percentile, and he has 10th percentile fastball velo, a 13th percentile average exit velo, limited chase and swings and misses, and a 9th percentile Hard Hit% with a 15th percentile GB%.
All of those things are bad, especially for pitching in Sacramento, so I think Kansas City can help us out a bit offensively as well.
Picks: Athletics 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+114), Athletics Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+100), Over 9.5 (-102)
