MLB Best Bets Today June 24
Getaway day for some, business as usual for others, as all 30 teams are slated to take the field on Wednesday. There are a lot of above average starting pitchers on the bump today or young guys looking to make a name for themselves. There aren’t a lot of straight up bums on the board, but some guys are definitely having better seasons than others. It’s all about the matchups today, tomorrow, and every day.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 24:
Royals vs. Rays Prediction
Pick: Royals +124
Noah Cameron and Griffin Jax are the slated starters here, as the Royals have had an offensive explosion of late, even without the services of star Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia. I’ve been looking for opportunities to fade Jax and I think I have one here, as he faces a team with some familiarity against him.
Jax is being stretched out as a starter and it has mostly gone well for him with a 2.70 ERA, but he has a 5.06 xERA and a 4.08 FIP. The Tigers blasted him for six runs back on June 1 and that’s one of his two starts against an AL Central opponent. The other was his first start against the Twins and he went 2.1 shutout innings. Jax spent a ton of time with the Twins as a primary setup man and closer.
With that high xERA, an 80.3% LOB% with less than a strikeout per inning as a starter, and a double-digit Barrel%, I’m looking for the Royals to have some success here.
Meanwhile, on offense, the Rays have just a .257 wOBA and a 60 wRC+ against LHP over the last 14 days and rank sixth in plate appearances in that span. In other words, the platoon guys are getting their opportunities and not producing, as the Rays have a .208/.281/.296 slash in that window. Cameron has a 4.20 ERA and a 4.40 xERA, but his 3.42 FIP and 3.89 xFIP suggest some better days ahead. He’s the opposite of Jax with a 66% LOB%.
The Royals are sixth in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days, slashing .291/.354/.498. We’ll see if they can keep it up against Jax, but this is a team rallying together in the absence of Witt and this is a decent price to take a shot.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Diamondbacks -102
Mitch Bratt will make his MLB debut in this battle of southpaws, as the Diamondbacks look to build off of last night’s comeback win. Bratt has only worked 44.1 innings across his 11 starts this season and just came back after missing some time to throw four innings on June 17. He hadn’t pitched in about 2.5 weeks and allowed a couple runs on a couple hits.
Overall, Bratt is a solid arm. He’s survived pitching in Reno and the PCL with a 2.84 ERA this season and also put up solid numbers in the hitter-happy Texas League. He’s struck out 492 batters in 424.2 innings of work and has only issued 106 walks. Having pitched in the two worst minor leagues for hurlers, his numbers really jumped off the page to me when looking him up, even if he may only be a four-and-fly guy.
Fortunately, guys like Drey Jameson, Kohl Drake, and Ryan Thompson are rested and can provide some length if needed.
Matthew Liberatore gets the call for the Redbirds here, as he enters with a 5.23 ERA, 5.78 xERA, and a 5.07 FIP over 72.1 innings of work. He’s allowed a .336 BABIP and 15 home runs, so that gives you an idea of what his command profile has looked like this season. He’s allowed a 45.1% Hard Hit% and a 10.6% Barrel%.
On the whole, Arizona is a team that I want to back. They are last in wOBA at .237 over the last 30 days with runners in scoring position, which is nearly 50 points worse than any other team. Their .190 BABIP is 48 points worse than the next lowest team. And they are 11th in plate appearances with RISP. They’ve gotten tremendously unlucky in this split and water will have to find its level soon. They can’t keep batting .153 in that split and maybe yesterday’s win will be a catalyst.
Athletics vs. Giants Prediction
Pick: Athletics -115
The A’s and Giants continue their series for California bragging rights with a matchup between Gage Jump and Tyler Mahle. The Sacramento left-hander is off to a nice start with a 2.37 ERA, 3.11 xERA, and a 2.48 FIP, as he gave up four runs in his MLB debut and has only allowed four runs total in four starts since. He even navigated Las Vegas Ballpark with just three runs allowed on five hits in five innings back on June 12.
Jump has only allowed a 29.6% Hard Hit% and a 2.5% Barrel% over his 81 batted ball events thus far. Oracle Park is forgiving in and of itself, not that Jump really seems to need the help. He’s also pumped in a 67.8% F-Strike%, has an 11.3% SwStr%, and a 35.7% Chase Rate, so more strikeouts should be coming.
Mahle is returning from the IL, as he’ll make his first MLB start since May 26. He made one rehab appearance at Triple-A and allowed a run on a hit over three innings, but he did walk five of the 14 batters that he faced. When Mahle hit the IL, he had a 6.04 ERA with a 4.15 xERA and a 4.89 FIP in his 56.2 innings of work. He had allowed 11 homers and a .331 BABIP, so the location profile wasn’t particularly strong for him.
I’m not sure he’ll be all that effective today and the A’s are a team that has walked a lot throughout the season. The A’s bullpen is in very good shape from a workload standpoint. So are the Giants, but they’re at a big disadvantage early in this game.
