MLB Best Bets Today August 2

A full dance card on the diamond features a lot of games in the heat of the day, so we could see more offense, just like we did yesterday. I don’t know if it’s just the weather or if we have some sort of midseason ball change, but there were runs aplenty in Friday’s action and Saturday may play out the same way with a lot of mid-afternoon starts.

There are only four true night games, including one really odd handicap with the Braves vs. Reds at Bristol Motor Speedway in a makeshift ballpark. It’s going to be quite a day.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for August 2:

Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-119, 6.5)

4:05 p.m. ET

Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler make up the best pitching matchup of the day, if not the season to date, as the AL Cy Young Award favorite and NL Cy Young Award second favorite come together. This is a pretty simple handicap for me. Both guys are elite. Undoubtedly. Skubal has a 2.09 ERA with a 2.50 xERA and a 1.93 FIP. Wheeler has a 2.56 ERA with a 2.35 xERA and a 2.70 FIP.

So, sure, Skubal might be slightly better than Wheeler, but the Phillies have the better lineup and the Phillies have been very solid against lefties throughout the season. Philadelphia is eighth in wOBA at .334 in the second half with a .247/.314/.467 slash and a 113 wRC+. The Tigers, meanwhile, are 27th in wOBA at .287 with a .230/.272/.387 slash and an 82 wRC+. 

Over the last 30 days, the Phillies are sixth in wOBA at .340 against LHP with a .250/.323/.464 slash and a 116 wOBA. Their big SLG numbers, both in the second half and against lefties, are the difference for me. These aren’t pitchers that you manufacture innings against. They are guys you hope to hit a mistake out of the ballpark against. And the Phillies have more power potential in this split and at this time in my mind.

The Phillies only needed two relievers yesterday and Jhoan Duran only needed four pitches in his Phillies debut to lock down the save. The Tigers used four relievers and their bullpen just isn’t on Philly’s level. The starters may very well cancel out, but I’ll take my chances with the better offense and the better bullpen.

Pick: Phillies -119

Milwaukee Brewers (-194, 8.5) at Washington Nationals

4:05 p.m. ET

Sorry for the shorter lead time on these first two plays, but I couldn’t pass on either of them. Yesterday was a day heavy on Brewers liability with the run line, 1st 5 Team Total Over and full-game Team Total Over. They basically won all three within the first few innings.

I’m going back to the well with the run line today. The price isn’t as nice at -1.5 and -113, but Milwaukee is sending out a better pitcher in Brandon Woodruff. The veteran right-hander has a 2.01 ERA with a 3.37 FIP in four starts since coming back with a 29/3 K/BB ratio. He struck out 10 Nationals over 4.1 innings in his second start back. He did allow two homers in that start, but he’s allowed four solo homers. Those are fine.

Especially when you consider that the Brewers get another low-strikeout pitcher in Jake Irvin and rank sixth in wOBA here in the second half, including yesterday’s big barrage. Irvin has a 4.69 ERA with a 5.18 xERA and a 5.17 FIP as he draws a highly-motivated Brewers team playing at a very, very high level these days.

Miguel Cairo was asked who the closer would be last night in light of all Washington’s reliever trades and he said, “We’ll see”. So, yeah….

Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (-117)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Sacramento A’s (-123, 10)

10:05 p.m. ET

Yesterday, I picked against the Angels and Tyler Anderson. Anderson is an impending free agent, but you never heard a peep about him. Teams weren’t interested in the southpaw with the negative regression signs and a home run issue.

Well, the Diamondbacks traded Merrill Kelly, but were unable to move impending free agent Zac Gallen. Gallen comes into this start with a 5.60 ERA, 4.92 xERA, and a 4.75 FIP in his 127 innings of work. He’s actually been a little bit better on the road than at home this season, but he’s been bad in both places. He’s allowed 23 homers on the whole, with 12 of them on the road and a .450 SLG against. The biggest difference between home and road is his BB%. Otherwise, the power numbers against look similar.

Gallen’s allowed 10 runs on 12 hits in his two second-half starts and it seems like we’re just going to see more of the same from him. No team felt like they could fix him. The Diamondbacks were probably even willing to eat a little of his leftover salary. When evaluators around the league, one filled with hubris and quants that feel like they can find a solution to anything, can’t even find a reason to acquire you, that’s a bad sign.

J.T. Ginn is making his third straight start for the A’s. He’s allowed one run on eight hits with six strikeouts and just one walk over those outings at Texas and at Houston. He’s an extreme ground ball guy, which should help him pitching here in Sacramento. He has a 3.89 ERA with a 3.40 xERA and a 4.51 FIP in his 44 innings of work, but a 2.73 ERA and a 3.25 FIP over his last 26.1 innings since being re-added to the active roster on June 16. He’s only allowed three homers in that span.

The A’s were never a contender and the Trade Deadline was largely irrelevant to them. It was hugely relevant to the Diamondbacks and they only scored one run last night. I like the A’s at a short price.

Pick: Athletics -123