MLB Best Bets Today October 28

Technically, it is Game 4 of the World Series, but it might as well be Game 5 because two games were played on Monday night with 18 innings worth of baseball. It was a jubilant celebration for the Dodgers, who got a massive lift from Will Klein, and a devastating night for the Blue Jays, who went back to their hotel rooms to try and sleep off a rough night.

Shane Bieber and Shohei Ohtani will be called upon to give their teams some innings tonight, after neither starter was able to complete five innings last night. On the plus side for both teams, most bullpen arms are available with Sunday’s off day and reasonable workloads last night.

By the way, I think these World Series player prop strategies are still very relevant the rest of the way. I wrote about today’s starter, Shane Bieber.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for October 28:

Blue Jays at Dodgers (-209, 8)

8:00 p.m. ET

One day after reaching base nine times, Ohtani heads to the mound because he is the best baseball player any of us will ever see. The right-hander worked 47 innings over 14 starts in the regular season with a 2.87 ERA, 2.45 xERA, and a 1.90 FIP, as he had 62 strikeouts against just nine walks. In the playoffs, he’s made two starts and allowed three runs on five hits over 12 innings with 19 strikeouts against four walks.

We’re all very lucky to be living in the same timeline as Ohtani, who also hits when he pitches. Like last night’s starters, he’ll be on the mound for the first time in 11 days, as he pitched the Dodgers to a sweep of the Brewers. Bieber last started eight days ago and went just 3.2 innings against the Mariners in Game 7 to push the Blue Jays to the World Series.

Bieber’s made three postseason starts with seven runs allowed (six earned) on 16 hits over 12.1 innings of work. It’s a small sample size, but as good as Bieber has been in the regular season, he has a 4.75 ERA with a 4.16 FIP in 30.1 innings of work in the playoffs. I hate to say this about a longtime Cleveland Indian/Guardian, but Bieber is a guy who I do believe padded his numbers against the weak AL Central. Good teams that can drive the ball oppo, especially right-handed hitters, can have success against him. His fastball isn’t very good and his best pitches don’t really touch the inner part of the plate against RHB.

And this season, Bieber allowed a 48.2% Hard Hit% and a 12.3% Barrel%. He’s been better about hard contact in the playoffs, but has also had starts of 2.2 and 3.2 innings. The Blue Jays could really be up against it here if they get another start like that. Because they lost yesterday, John Schneider doesn’t really have the luxury of playing the long game, as falling behind 3-1 might be the end of things. That means Bieber has a medium-length leash at best.

I don’t like this matchup for him at all. The Dodgers lineup is unrelenting and everybody seems to have power to all fields. There’s a lot less swing and miss in this Dodgers lineup than the Mariners and Yankees lineups. He’s also a strike-thrower and the Dodgers were seventh in Hard Hit% and fourth in Barrel% during the regular season. To me, his margin for error is really small.

I don’t like the double negative on the run line of -1.5 and minus juice, so that’s out for me. I also don’t know how trustworthy the Dodgers bullpen will be. Either bullpen for that matter. But there are a few other ways I can fade Bieber.

He has allowed a first inning run in all three postseason starts and allowed a .267/.302/.533 slash with a .355 wOBA the first time through the order in the regular season. Interestingly, most of the damage was done in the second inning, as he gave up a .394/.412/.788 slash. But, I’ll still play Dodgers Score A 1st Inning Run “Yes” at +170. I’ll also play Dodgers 1st 5 Over 2.5 Runs at +100. Also the Dodgers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 at -140. I think Ohtani is terrific tonight, as he has been in the playoffs and in the regular season.

To me, he’s just not super sharp. I’m shying away from Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed for Bieber since he’s only allowed two in each of his three playoff starts and Schneider has had that quick hook in two of the three starts. I have to think he’ll go to Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, or Chris Bassitt for length if he needs it. Yesavage is slated to start tomorrow, but if they need him, they’ll use him.

Picks: Dodgers 1st Inning Run “Yes” +170; Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+100); Dodgers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-140)