MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
This week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update goes out to all my loyal “fans” who have stuck with my belief regarding the importance of team bullpen strength in handicapping baseball games, especially if you were around and invested for Sunday’s action, as we had our biggest day of the season, turning what would have been modest losses for our “easiest angle” into weekly winnings. In fact, Sunday’s games on that system went 10-2 for +10.17 units! Our better bullpen underdogs angle also had a big week overall, bringing in nearly +8 units of profit. Hopefully, it is the start of a big run overall for the bullpen systems. We’ve seen it before!
A couple of weeks ago, I highlighted the series between the Braves and Mariners at the time, as it matched our #1 & #2 rated bullpens at the time. Well, we have another series matchup beginning tonight that is even bigger, perhaps the biggest ever on record for my bullpen ratings, as I can’t ever recall before having two teams with ratings of 30 and 29 going head-to-head. That matchup, of course, is the Dodgers and Padres from San Diego. Not only are these great bullpens currently, but they are also separated by just a half-game in the race for the NL West lead. The relief staffs are also red-hot currently. LA’s bullpen is on a 17-inning scoreless streak and has posted an ERA of 0.46 and a WHIP of 0.71 in its last six outings. Not surprisingly, the Dodgers have won their last five games. The Padres, meanwhile, come off a series-winning sweep at Seattle and boast a BP ERA of 1.31 with a WHIP of 1.16 in their last five games. Whichever bullpen produces best in the set will probably take the three-game series.
One other thing I wanted to touch upon this week in the bullpen systems update was the won-lost records of bullpens and how integral they are to the overall success and standing of their respective teams. A lot of people focus on saves or blown saves, or other stats like ERA and WHIP, etc., as the only markers for gauging relief pitching. However, take a look at the current won-lost records and judge for yourself how much the mid- to late-innings work of relief pitchers impacts teams’ overall records.
Rank, Team, BP Won-Lost (%)
1. ATLANTA: 14-5 (73.7%)
2. ST. LOUIS: 10-4 (71.4%)
3. TAMPA BAY: 14-6 (70.0%)
4. SAN DIEGO: 12-6 (66.7%)
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 13-7 (65.0%)
6. TEXAS: 9-5 (64.3%)
7. BALTIMORE: 10-6 (62.5%)
8. MIAMI: 11-7 (61.1%)
9. WASHINGTON: 14-9 (60.9%)
10. CLEVELAND: 10-7 (58.8%)
11. NY METS: 11-8 (57.9%)
12. MILWAUKEE: 13-10 (56.5%)
13. LA DODGERS: 9-7 (56.3%)
14. NY YANKEES: 10-8 (55.6%)
15. PITTSBURGH: 10-8 (55.6%)
16. PHILADELPHIA: 9-8 (52.9%)
17. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 11-10 (52.4%)
18. DETROIT: 11-11 (50.0%)
19. CINCINNATI: 9-9 (50.0%)
20. ATHLETICS: 8-8 (50.0%)
21. SAN FRANCISCO: 5-5 (50.0%)
22. TORONTO: 11-13 (45.8%)
23. COLORADO: 8-10 (44.4%)
24. ARIZONA: 7-9 (43.8%)
25. SEATTLE: 8-11 (42.1%)
26. MINNESOTA: 7-11 (38.9%)
27. KANSAS CITY: 7-12 (36.8%)
28. LA ANGELS: 6-11 (35.3%)
29. HOUSTON: 5-11 (31.3%)
30. BOSTON: 3-10 (23.1%)
Some quick observations about this list…
A few of the most surprising teams in the league in terms of overall record right now find themselves right at the top in the Braves, Cardinals, and Rays.
THE two most disappointing teams in the league, the Red Sox and Astros are losing a lot of games in the late innings. It might not be all bullpen-related, particularly in the case of Boston, but this kind of bad luck will impact a team negatively over the course of a season.
Look at the list and figure for yourself which teams could be much better or much worse now had they not gotten the type of late-inning luck they have. In my estimation, things would turn negatively in a hurry for teams like Baltimore, Miami, and Washington, while some better luck could do wonders for teams like the Mariners, Royals, and Red Sox.
Before digging into the updated systems numbers, just a quick reminder that I like to include in these articles regularly. These MLB Bullpen Systems derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or at least minimize losses. It has done so every year I have shared the logic. Trust me when I say that I have experienced similar starts to this one. It seems that even after many years of starting pitchers lasting fewer and fewer innings each season on average, oddsmakers are still predicating their lines on lineups and starting pitchers. In many cases, the relief pitchers are almost ignored. This is where the value is derived from if you have a solid, reliable set of bullpen ratings, systems, and even score simulations. I have all of this and share it with VSiN subscribers every day throughout the season.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first 7-1/2 weeks of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and a ROI of 0%. For 2026, this easy system is off to a slow start this season, 328-294 in all for -47.13 units, and an ROI of -7.5%.
It’s usually the case that easiest isn’t always best, although the nearly dead even returns on 2,142 games last year validates why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. If you consider that all of the lines I use for this analysis average out to about an 15% average loss per game, this easiest system is still providing users with an advantage of 7.5%. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early ‘26 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 8-10 for -4.2 units and a ROI of -23.3%.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 27-37 for -13.53 units and a ROI of -21.1%!
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For ’26, these teams are off to a slow 96-69 start for -6.83 units and a ROI of -4.1%.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in ‘25. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For ’26, they are off to a rare positive start, 50-61 for +9.02 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For ’26, these teams are off to a modest 85-64 start for -0.37 units and a ROI of -0.2%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The ’26 record so far is 21-10 for -2.45 units and a ROI of -7.9%.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the ’25 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 25-26 but for -14.65 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 13-7 start for -3.03 units. The ROI on that is -15.2%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the ’22-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 89-102 for -2.82 units. However, it did get back +7.83 units last week alone.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 705-754 record, for +23.82 units (ROI 1.6%) in the full 2024-25 seasons. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but wound up 377-404 for +13.98 units. The 2026 record is 84-93 for -6.29 units thus far, a second straight slow start.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the ’23-‘25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 56-70 start for -7.41 units (ROI -5.9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 24-33 for -7.39 units and an ROI of -13%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in ’26, and it is now 46-54 for -2.6 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in ‘23, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the ’26 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 53-46 for -11.92 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 32-38 for -19.61 units.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 5/17)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. TEXAS: 3.03
2. SEATTLE: 3.08
3. ATLANTA: 3.1
4. BOSTON: 3.21
5. LA DODGERS: 3.24
6. MILWAUKEE: 3.36
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. HOUSTON: 5.78
29. LA ANGELS: 5.37
28. MINNESOTA: 5.16
27. CINCINNATI: 5.03
26. WASHINGTON: 4.78
25. ATHLETICS: 4.67
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.09
2. LA DODGERS: 1.17
3. MIAMI: 1.18
4. BOSTON: 1.19
5. ARIZONA: 1.19
6. SAN DIEGO: 1.2
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. HOUSTON: 1.6
29. CINCINNATI: 1.58
28. MINNESOTA: 1.57
27. LA ANGELS: 1.52
26. KANSAS CITY: 1.46
25. ATHLETICS: 1.45
Top 6 Bullpen K’s/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.17
2. PHILADELPHIA: 9.8
3. TORONTO: 9.78
4. NY METS: 9.6
5. SAN DIEGO: 9.59
6. LA DODGERS: 9.53
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.17
29. MINNESOTA: 7.37
28. TEXAS: 7.51
27. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.6
26. ARIZONA: 7.77
25. ST LOUIS: 7.81
Top 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 0.7
2. ATLANTA: 0.77
3. PHILADELPHIA: 0.94
4. BOSTON: 0.94
5. MIAMI: 1.03
6. MILWAUKEE: 1.09
Worst 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. CINCINNATI: 1.59
29. LA ANGELS: 1.56
28. MINNESOTA: 1.54
27. KANSAS CITY: 1.54
26. PITTSBURGH: 1.47
25. WASHINGTON: 1.42
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (5/11):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. COLORADO: +9 points
2. SAN FRANCISCO: +7
3. ATLANTA: +6
3. BALTIMORE: +6
3. MINNESOTA: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. TAMPA BAY: -12 points
1. CINCINNATI: -12
3. NY YANKEES: -8
4. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -5
5. DETROIT: -4
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 5/18)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. LA DODGERS: 30
2. SAN DIEGO: 29
3. ATLANTA: 27
4. MILWAUKEE: 23
5. SEATTLE: 21
6. BOSTON: 19
7. NY METS: 16
8. CLEVELAND: 15
9. TAMPA BAY: 13
10. TEXAS: 13
11. CHICAGO CUBS: 11
12. PHILADELPHIA: 11
13. SAN FRANCISCO: 10
14. MIAMI: 10
15. NY YANKEES: 9
16. DETROIT: 8
17. TORONTO: 7
18. ARIZONA: 4
19. BALTIMORE: 3
20. KANSAS CITY: 3
21. ATHLETICS: 2
22. PITTSBURGH: -2
23. ST LOUIS: -5
24. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -8
25. COLORADO: -8
26. MINNESOTA: -11
27. WASHINGTON: -15
28. LA ANGELS: -15
29. CINCINNATI: -17
30. HOUSTON: -17
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
