MLB Best Bets Today August 7
It is going to be an exciting weekend on the diamond and it all starts tonight with a full slate of games, as long as Mother Nature decides to comply. We have a wide range of matchups as well, as there are some big favorites, some coin-flippy types of games, and some that fall in between as a lot of new series get underway.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 7:
Reds vs. Nationals Prediction
Pick: Nationals -113
Cade Cavalli and Johnny Wholestaff are the slated starters here, as the Reds could opt to go in a number of directions with their starting pitcher. Chase Petty will factor in some way, as he was called back up from the minors on August 4. He hasn’t pitched since July 29, as he had zero appearances in the minors before taking the short drive from Louisville to Cincinnati, if he left Cincy at all.
He has a 4.50 ERA with a 5.28 xERA and a 5.43 FIP at the MLB level over 30 innings. He hasn’t started a game since May 23. He’s been more effective as a reliever, but still has a 4.96 FIP in that role, so some regression is likely on the way. Outside of Petty, the Reds also have Luis Mey, who had a 3.86 ERA in the minors, but a 5.18 xERA and a 4.26 FIP with a 14.7% BB%. He hasn’t pitched at the MLB level since June 5 and has allowed seven runs in 8.2 innings. Zach McCambley is another option, as he had a solid 2.57 ERA with a 4.05 xERA and a 3.86 FIP in the minors before getting called back up. He’s given up a run on two hits in two appearances this month.
While the order of operations for the Reds is all over the place, it looks pretty cut and dry for the Nationals, who will send Cavalli to the hill for the 25th time this season. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since June 7 and has only done that once since May 5. He has a 3.52 ERA with a 4.05 xERA and a 3.40 FIP over 122.2 innings of work. While he’s only racked up six strikeouts in his last two starts over 12 innings, he has 133 on the season, so easily over a strikeout per inning.
The Nationals are fourth in wRC+ against RHP in the second half with a 127 mark, slashing .269/.356/.475. The Reds are 15th in wRC+ at 102 with a .234/.311/.445 slash. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been nails lately, racking up three saves and a win over the last three days, but this has been an underwhelming group on the whole. The Nationals pen is pretty well-rested given how their week has gone.
Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction
Pick: Under 0.5 Runs 1st Inning (NRFI) (-115)
Noah Schultz is the concerning part of this handicap, as he’s allowed eight earned runs and nine runs total in the first inning of his 13 starts. Opposing batters are slashing .250/.379/.500 and he only has a 12/10 K/BB ratio. This one might start a little late due to weather, so we’ll see if that has any sort of impact on the game, but I’m hoping that the southpaw Schultz can get through the first.
I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see the White Sox run out a righty for the first inning to combat Cleveland’s platoon-based lineup. I would have fully expected it if not for last night’s 13-inning marathon against the Red Sox, in which a lot of relievers were used, but it still might behoove the White Sox to send out an opener that could potentially push Schultz deeper into the game.
If not, Cleveland has only scored 58 runs in 116 first innings this season, slashing just .234/.297/.400.
The White Sox got in at 2:30 a.m. local time after last night’s deflating loss at Fenway Park. I’m sure they’ll try to come out guns blazing, but Parker Messick has been awesome in the first inning. He’s allowed two runs in 22 starts with a .108/.185/.189 slash against. In fact, Messick just allowed his second first inning run against the Twins back on July 21 on a Ryan Jeffers HR. The White Sox are a left-handed-heavy lineup, though, so hopefully that helps Messick here.
Rays vs. Mariners Prediction
Pick: Rays -102
Two excellent starting pitchers are set to take the mound here between the Rays and Mariners. It will be Drew Rasmussen for Tampa Bay and Logan Gilbert for Seattle, as these two guys have a ton of similar numbers. Rasmussen has a 26.5% K% and a 4.3% BB%, while Gilbert has a 26.6% K% and a 5.4% BB%. Opposing batters are hitting just .211 off of Gilbert and just .205 off of Rasmussen.
Rasmussen, though, has a 2.91 ERA with a 3.14 xERA and a 3.01 FIP in his 117.1 innings of work, while Gilbert has a 3.46 ERA with a 3.63 xERA and a 3.41 FIP. The biggest differences between the two are that Gilbert has allowed 17 HR in 132.2 innings compared to 12 in 117.1 for Rasmussen and is protected more than Gilbert by his manager. Rasmussen only has 90 plate appearances the third time through the order and they’ve been very selective, as he’s allowed just a .200/.244/.271 slash. Gilbert has 122 PA the third time through with a .225/.289/.505 slash. He’s allowed seven HR and 10 doubles in that split.
In a game with a total of just 7 and two very strong pitchers on the mound, one mistake might make all the difference. Tampa Bay ranks sixth in bullpen ERA in the second half, while the Mariners are 25th. Manager Kevin Cash is willing to turn it over to them quicker than Dan Wilson is with his unit, and maybe we can see why.
The Rays also sit eighth in wRC+ against RHP in the second half with a 108 mark, while the Mariners are 20th at 88. Seattle is slashing just .223/.299/.347, while the Rays are slashing .266/.312/.444. I’ll take my chances with the Rays as an underdog in this one. In arguably the biggest statistical anomaly of the season, Gilbert has allowed 16 HR in 78.2 innings at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park, but has allowed just one HR in 54 innings on the road
