WNBA Picks
A solid 2-1 night in the WNBA for us on Thursday after a 1-0 Wednesday, so we’ll look to continue the post-All-Star momentum on Friday night. There’s a three-game slate featuring the Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings, Atlanta Dream vs Seattle Storm, and Portland Fire vs Indiana Fever. Here are the TSI projections for Friday, July 31st.
Washington Mystics (+3.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 167.5
Washington has fooled me before, and again I find myself asking, “Have they turned a corner or are they just due for some major regression?” They’re playing seven points above their season average over the last three games and defeated the Aces, Valkyries and Sun in that span. Dallas has been 2.5 points worse than its season average over the last three and is just 1-2 in those games straight up. TSI projects Washington -1.5 with a total of 175.5 (note: due to the success of the regression data on totals, I’m incorporating that into my official TSI projections now). I feel like Washington burns us every time, but I am prepared to get hurt again, as the Mystics are a point better at home while Dallas is five points worse on the road. Further, I’m going to play the Over since the regression trends really point to a higher scoring game than the market anticipates.
Bet: Mystics +3.5 (Play to +1.5)
Bet: Over 167.5 (Play to 169.5)
Atlanta Dream (-12.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 178.5
Both teams have been outplaying their season averages lately, and the regression data would give a two-point nod to Atlanta in that regard, as the Dream are averaging 97 points per game over their last four games. Seattle is kind of Jekyll and Hyde depending on the home/road situation, and they’re on the road here, where they’ve been 8.5 points worse than at home this season. TSI projects Atlanta -12.5 with a total of 181.5 in this game, so I’d lean Over, but I’m not going to play it at this number because I just have little faith in the Seattle offense away from Washington.
Lean: Over 178.5
Portland Fire (+8.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 188.5
Indiana is surging more than any team in the league right now, playing a whopping seventeen points better than their season average over the last three games, while Portland has been a point below their (already low) season average. TSI projects Indiana -5 with a total of 195. I absolutely have no problem playing an Over here, as Indiana’s last five games have averaged 198 points combined and Portland is more than capable of contributing offensively and has a bad enough defense that Indiana’s 100-point streak should remain intact here.
Bet: Over 188.5 or better
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