MLB Best Bets Today September 14
Maybe you have some new funds in your bankroll after the weekend of football. Maybe you don’t. But, baseball is still going on every day and provides the opportunity to make some winning wagers. It is a pretty busy day on the diamond, too, as we have 10 games to get the work week underway.
Note: There will be no MLB article on Tuesday, September 15.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 14:
Tigers vs. Blue Jays Prediction
Pick: Blue Jays -138
A bit of a number here, but I think it’s worth laying as the Blue Jays host the Tigers. Detroit has won five of six, but they’re stepping up in class here after playing the Twins and Rockies, as the Blue Jays have firmly gotten themselves in the mix for the final Wild Card spot with a solid month of August.
Jose Soriano was a Trade Deadline acquisition and he’s been pretty good on the whole, posting a 4.05 ERA with a 4.33 FIP. He’s made seven starts and five of them have ranged from passable to good, as his worst start came against the Yankees in the Bronx. He does have a 4.78 xERA, a byproduct of his low K%. He does have a 56% GB%, so at least he’s been able to erase some of the 14 free passes.
Troy Melton has gotten a visit from the Regression Monster recently. The right-hander checks in with a full-season 2.42 ERA, 3.70 xERA, and a 4.06 FIP with an 83.3% LOB% and a .235 BABIP against. Over his last four starts, Melton has a 5.70 ERA with a 6.29 xERA and a 5.81 FIP, as his LOB% has fallen to 65.5% and he’s given up 17 runs on 27 hits in 23.2 innings of work with a .286 BABIP against. He’s also allowed five homers in that span.
Over the last 30 days, the Tigers are 23rd in wOBA against RHP with a .216/.308/.363 slash, with a 10.4% BB% doing a lot of the heavy lifting. We’ll see if Soriano can stay in the zone and force Detroit to hit its way on base.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are seventh in wOBA in that span against RHP with a .342 mark and a 120 wRC+. They have slashed .284/.353/.424, as this is more like what we saw last season from this high-contact offense.
The Tigers do have the bullpen usage advantage, but I really like the collection of arms in the Toronto pen and I’m willing to lay the price as a result.
Giants vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Over 7.5 (-118)
Landen Roupp and Quinn Mathews just faced off against each other last time out on 9/8 and they’ll do so again tonight, but in St. Louis instead of San Francisco. It’ll be sunny and warm with a breeze blowing across the ballpark from the RF corner, so it’s not like we have tremendous hitting conditions here, but certainly better than what happens at Oracle Park on a daily basis.
Roupp has a 4.00 ERA with a 3.73 xERA and a 3.74 FIP on the season. He’s done an outstanding job of keeping the ball in the park and inducing weak contact, but he’s also walked 72 batters in just 150.2 innings. He’s created a lot of his own issues. Even over his last three starts, he has only allowed two runs on eight hits in 16 innings, but has a 9/8 K/BB ratio.
Roupp limited hard contact in that start against the Cards, but he also only had a 7.4% SwStr% with a 26.1% Chase Rate. Those are two very well below average numbers to be going up against the same group again here. His 95% Z-Contact% was the highest that he’s had in a start since July 17. The Cardinals made a lot of contact, but just didn’t really get rewarded for it.
Similarly, Mathews, who has a 4.11 ERA with a 3.54 xERA and a 4.02 FIP in his 30.2 innings of work, could see something similar happen here. He allowed seven of his 14 runs in one awful start against the Phillies and has been rather good otherwise, but he, too, walks too many guys with 14 free passes in 30.2 innings of work. Mathews gave up two solo homers in that start against the Giants and walked two with just four strikeouts over six innings.
Mathews did a bit better with a 10.1% SwStr%, but only had a 29.4% Chase Rate and a 93.8% Z-Contact%. I’m not sure how much more these two guys can do to make adjustments squaring off for the second straight time.
Also, as you would expect, Roupp has higher numbers on the road, with a 4.28 ERA, .239/.327/.367 slash and a .311 wOBA compared to a 3.69 ERA, .194/.294/.295 slash and a .271 wOBA at home.
St. Louis has had all sorts of relief issues lately, especially with closer Riley O’Brien. The Giants are missing several arms and traded some away as well. I think we get some runs here.
