MLB Best Bets Today July 23
Not much is happening on the MLB board today, as there are only five games on the schedule. Even though the All-Star Break ended a week ago, all 30 teams played on Monday, so we’ve got a bit of a respite for the majority of the league on Thursday. Not only that, but two of the games are lunchtime specials in Atlanta and Cleveland. We actually have staggered start times for all five games today, a nice touch on a light day.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 23:
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Diamondbacks 1st 5 +100
Brandon Pfaadt is a new man. The Arizona right-hander was sent down to the minor leagues to work on a mechanical adjustment and it seems like it went pretty well. Since coming back on June 30, Pfaadt has made four starts covering 21 innings with a 2.14 ERA, 2.49 xERA, and a 2.77 FIP. He’s only allowed one home run and hasn’t given up more than two runs in a start. He’s still not getting a ton of strikeouts, but what it has done is improve his control with just one walk out of 83 batters. He’s also getting a 50% GB% in that span.
So, what was the change? A major change to his horizontal release point. Pfaadt simplified his windup and also moved back over to the first base side of the pitching rubber permanently.
The fix has worked and he has allowed just a 30.9% Hard Hit% and a 4.4% Barrel%. For a guy who has given up a ton of hard contact in his career (42.2% HH%, 9.9% Barrel%), this is a welcomed change and something that can help him out, even if he’s not getting the strikeouts. In these four starts, Pfaadt has a 69.9% F-Strike%, so he’s been pounding the zone, plus he has two starts with a Chase Rate of 40% or higher.
The Diamondbacks are also not a bad team to pitch to contact with, as they rank second with +37 Outs Above Average per Statcast, trailing only the Cubs with 48.
Michael McGreevy is a guy that shows a lot of regression signs, as he walks into this start with a 2.92 ERA, but his advanced metrics paint a darker picture. He’s got a 5.33 xERA with a 4.14 FIP over his 108 innings across 19 starts. SIERA, one of the better run estimators that we have, has him with a 4.43 mark. The projection systems range from a 4.10 ERA to a 4.84 ERA the rest of the season. He only has 71 strikeouts leading to a 16.6% K%, which is a huge part of the equation, especially with a 20th percentile Barrel% and a 31st percentile Hard Hit%.
The Cardinals have the worst offense against RHP in the month of July with a .199/.270/.311 slash and a .262 wOBA. Arizona has a below average group as well, but their SLG is 94 points higher in that span and their OBP is 41 points north of where STL sits.
I don’t really want to deal with the Arizona bullpen, and the handicap is Pfaadt > McGreevy, so I’ll ride with the 1st 5.
