MLB Best Bets Today September 8
After a bunch of day games on the Labor Day holiday, we’ve got a standard-issue Tuesday around Major League Baseball with the first game at 6:35 p.m. ET. All 30 teams are in action and Mother Nature won’t have too much of an impact. Extreme heat in Kansas City with a breeze blowing out to LF is the lone weather highlight, so keep that in mind if you’re looking at that game and some of the player props available. Otherwise, it’s a straightforward kind of day.
Note: Due to a death in the family, the MLB article might not come out every day this week/weekend.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 8:
Guardians vs. Orioles Prediction
Pick: Orioles -123
That aforementioned 6:35 game is my first pick of the night, as the Guardians and Orioles square off at Oriole Park. Tanner Bibee gets the nod for Cleveland and Brandon Young and his reverse platoon splits will go for Baltimore. What are reverse platoon splits? Those are when a right-handed pitcher has better numbers against left-handed batters, which is the opposite of what we typically see. Given that Young has been very solid against lefties this season and no team in baseball employs a platoon advantage more than Cleveland, this should be a good matchup for him.
Young has a 3.42 ERA with a 4.33 xERA and a 4.41 FIP and I believe those regression signs are keeping this line manageable for us. Young has held lefties to a .216/.301/.375 slash and a .300 wOBA on the season. Compare that to what righties have done with a .299/.336/.446 slash and a .342 wOBA. Young’s splitter is one of the main reasons why he has success against LHB and the Guardians are a terrible lineup against changeups and splitters. They are 26th in Pitch Value against splitters (and dead last against changeups).
I would expect to see Young leverage the splitter more, especially since manager Craig Albernaz is very much aware of the shortcomings of the Cleveland lineup in that regard.
Meanwhile, I continue to be mystified as to why Bibee is a pitch-to-contact guy now given that he’s never really showcased great command. He only has 132 K in 166.1 innings of work and has also seen a slight spike in his BB%. He’s actually really fortunate to have just a .256 BABIP against, otherwise his 4.06 ERA, 4.29 xERA, and 4.57 FIP would all look worse.
Bibee just walked five last time out against the Blue Jays and gave up five runs. He’s got a 4.39 ERA in the second half, as his numbers on the whole are a bit better, but his BABIP luck has turned, leading to a big drop in LOB%.
Both bullpens are in good shape for this one tonight, but it’s a bad matchup for the Cleveland offense and I feel like the O’s will play from in front.
Rays vs. Braves Prediction
Pick: Rays -103
The Braves are back at home following an intense series against the Phillies over the holiday weekend that ended in a split. Philadelphia will return the favor and go to Atlanta this weekend. In between, the Braves have this three-game interleague set with the Rays.
It’s been a grind for the Braves lately. They lost an off day on August 31 due to a makeup game against the Giants. They did have Thursday off, but they also had a makeup game with the White Sox on August 20, had to play Sunday Night Baseball in the Little League Classic against the Brewers on August 23, so that was a four-city road trip over seven days. They’ve played really well in that stretch, but I wonder if this could be a flat spot, much like we saw last Monday against the Giants.
They also say that “momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher” and that SP for today is AJ Smith-Shawver, who has allowed 14 runs on 20 hits in 17.2 innings of work with a 15/11 K/BB ratio. While he hasn’t been hit hard, he’s had a lot of trouble finding the strike zone. The Rays don’t walk much, but that’s because they’re an aggressive lineup looking to use advantage counts properly and put balls in play. Over the last 30 days, they only have a 14.9% K% against RHP while slashing .273/.331/.402 with a .323 wOBA and a 106 wRC+.
The Braves have actually hit the skids a little bit with the bats against RHP, as they’re slashing just .241/.298/.383 with a .299 wOBA over the last 30 days. They’ll get Freddy Peralta here, who may be settling in a little bit with his new team. Peralta has a 4.86 ERA with a 4.08 xERA and a 4.62 FIP over 33.1 innings with the Rays, but has thrown 12 innings of one-run ball in his last two starts with 11 strikeouts against zero walks.
Peralta is inducing a 38.1% Chase Rate with the Rays, so that’s a really good sign and so is his 80.3% Z-Contact%. While his ERA is high, he’s actually thrown the ball really well and his last two starts may be an indication that things are turning a bit.
The Rays had yesterday off, a big deal since Kevin Kelly had worked three straight days in the absence of closer Bryan Baker. The expectation is that Baker will be available tonight, as he was sick over the weekend and dehydration was named as the cause for his massive velocity drop. He’s said to be healthy, which pushes me even further towards the Tampa Bay side.
Diamondbacks vs. Royals Prediction
Pick: Royals -101
Corbin Burnes makes his return for the Diamondbacks in this one, as he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery. This will be his first start since June 1, 2025 and he only made a couple of rehab outings, one in the Complex League with 43 pitches and one at Triple-A with two perfect innings. Burnes didn’t generate any swings and misses over his two innings on August 29, but didn’t allow any hits or walks.
I’m surprised to see what the D-Backs are doing here with Burnes, especially since he’s signed through the 2030 season. But, they should know better than me. Still, you really have to wonder what the quality of Burnes’ stuff will be, especially the cutter, which is a feel pitch. The Royals are fourth in wOBA against RHP over the last 30 days at .344 and fifth in wRC+ at 118, so they’ve been swinging some good sticks.
On the KC side, Michael Wacha just continues to be an effective arm and an excellent signing by the Royals. This season, he has a 3.36 ERA with a 3.90 xERA and a 4.09 FIP over 176.2 innings. He’s given the Royals three seasons with the most innings he had thrown since 2015, so they’ve been really lucky that he’s stayed healthy. And he’s been pretty good while out there.
In the second half, he’s been outstanding with a .201/.240/.402 slash against and a .278 wOBA over 57.1 innings of work. He has allowed 10 homers, but mostly solo shots, leading to a 2.51 ERA. Arizona sits 22nd in wOBA against RHP over the last 30 days.
Not only will Burnes be limited to 60 pitches, but the Arizona bullpen has worked a ton lately. Juan Morillo worked Saturday and Sunday, as did Kevin Ginkel and Jonathan Loaisiga. Brandyn Garcia has pitched three straight days, so he’s unavailable tonight. The D-Backs used six relievers yesterday, including their lower-leverage guys who rarely work back-to-back days. Kansas City has a big rest advantage in the bullpen and that’s a big deal on a day where Burnes will be significantly limited with his pitch count.
