MLB Best Bets Today August 12
A full day on the diamond gets underway at 1:40 p.m. ET, as all 30 teams take the field with a smattering of day games and night games. It should be an interesting day of baseball, as some of the early games feature sizable road favorites and that is always a tough bet to make on a getaway day. We do still have a solid slate later this evening for those who can’t get involved early or don’t have the time to handicap, so that’ll be the focus here.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 12:
Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction
Pick: Tigers -119
If it ain’t broke… Going against the Guardians has been a really good play for a while now. Because of their competitive nature and solid starting pitching, most of the lines to fade them are pretty reasonable and that’s the case again here today with Foster Griffin on the mound. Griffin’s first start with Cleveland was a real dud, as he allowed five runs on seven hits over four innings of work. Griffin decided to call his own game since it was his first start with the team and that seemed to be an awkward thing for everybody.
Adjustments will be made today, but still. He has a 3.31 ERA with a 4.08 xERA and a 4.20 FIP, so there were some clear negative regression signs in the profile to begin with. He allowed six runs in his final start with Washington and followed it up with another lackluster outing in his Cleveland debut. I think it might be fair to say that the Regression Monster has arrived.
The Guardians still can’t hit, as they are slashing .231/.345/.303 vs. LHP in the second half, being carried by a 13.2% BB%. We’ll see if they can draw walks against Framber Valdez and then capitalize on those chances, but this is a really, really bad baseball team at present. They’re not even playing good defense right now, which has been a hallmark of this team for a while.
The bullpen has also had some major issues. The Tigers are among the best offenses in baseball against righties in the second half, so, while they’re facing the southpaw Griffin to start today, they’ll see some right-handed arms out of the Cleveland pen.
Ultimately, the vibes are just pretty bad with Cleveland right now, as they are 7-16 in the second half and just 2-7 in August with virtually nothing from Jose Ramirez, who came back too early from hamate surgery, and a lot of other hitters slumping all at once.
Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction
Pick: Pirates -101
Carmen Mlodzinski is back in the rotation for the Pirates, a spot that he feels he never should have left. With Mitch Keller on the IL, Mlodzinski didn’t really support his own thinking, as he allowed five runs in just three innings in his first start since May 25. I have to think that he’s back into his starting rhythm and routine now, even if he isn’t stretched out the way he used to be.
I like Mlodzinski, who has a 3.51 ERA with a 4.93 xERA and a 3.62 FIP on the season. He has a lower K% and that’s part of why his xERA is so high, plus he has allowed a 46.6% Hard Hit% on the year. But, he’s only allowed a 7.5% Barrel%, so he’s given up some hard contact on ground balls and whatnot, but has done a great job of keeping the ball in the park and not allowing loud line drive or aerial contact.
Janson Junk gets the call today for the Marlins and this could be a tough start and spot for him. He has been smashed by lefties this season to the tune of a .320/.370/.490 slash in 219 PA with a 40/16 K/BB ratio. He has allowed 20 extra-base hits out of 64 total hits and lefties are even slashing .304/.352/.438 against him at home in what is supposed to be a pitcher’s park.
The leverage arms for the Pirates are all well-rested. Luke Weaver hasn’t pitched since Friday. Mason Montgomery and Gregory Soto haven’t pitched since Sunday. Former Marlin swingman Lake Bachar hasn’t worked since Saturday and he could be used as a piggyback for Mlodzinski, who is still working to build up his arm.
But, with Junk’s ugly splits against LHP, as the Pirates will probably send out at least seven of them, plus the well-rested Pirates pen, I like this small underdog price. Losers of six of their last seven, Pittsburgh badly needs a win and I expect Don Kelly to be very aggressive with the bullpen.
Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction
Pick: Yankees -124
Bryce Miller and Will Warren are set to start this battle of right-handers in the Bronx, as New York is a small favorite. Miller does not come into this start in very good form, as he has allowed 20 runs over his last 26.1 innings of work with just 17 strikeouts against 10 walks. He’s given up six homers over those five starts, including at least one long ball in each one of them. The big drop in K% is the one that stands out to me, as a 14.3% K% is just awful. His 9.1% SwStr% and 90.3% Z-Contact% greatly concern me as well.
A lot of the under-the-hood metrics seem fine and his full-season numbers are great, but this recent five-start stretch stems from a decrease in his fastball quality. Jack Martin of Rotographs took a look at fastball velocity decliners and Miller was the featured image on that article. His results have followed suit. He did have a bit of a bounce back in spin rate and velo last time out and still gave up four runs on five hits over five innings.
The season has been a mixed bag for Warren, who I really thought was a breakout candidate. He’s got a 4.18 ERA with a 4.52 xERA and a 3.85 FIP over his 22 starts, but there have been a lot of good ones in there with some putrid performances speckled in. That said, he has been more comfortable in the unfriendly confines of Yankee Stadium with a 3.88 ERA over 53.1 innings of work and he’s -19, -45, -31 in terms of BA/OBP/SLG compared to his road numbers with a .314 wOBA against.
Like Miller, he got off to a great start and has faded a bit as the season has gone along. Both teams are having major issues hitting righties right now, as the Mariners are 28th in wOBA at .275 and the Yankees are 29th at .274. But, Miller’s current form is enough for me to look to go against him here.
After some heavy usage last week, the Yankees bullpen is back on track now and everybody should be available. That is true for Seattle as well, but I like this matchup more for the New York offense, as crazy as that is to say with a guy like Miller on the mound.
