MLB Best Bets Today August 26
There was a lot of drama on Tuesday night around the Major League Baseball world and that might be just what the league needs in order to stay near the top of mind for people who are excited about football season. We usually have more of a split schedule on Wednesdays than we have today, as there is one 1 p.m. ET game and the rest are 3 p.m. ET or later, though there are some West Coast getaway day games that could feature some shenanigans given that the road teams are all from back east.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 26:
Dodgers vs. Braves Prediction
Pick: Dodgers -124
A reasonable price to lay with the Dodgers is a rarity, but we have one tonight. Roki Sasaki will be on the hill and he’s been very, very good of late. In six starts since the All-Star Break, he has a 2.31 ERA with a 3.26 xERA and a 3.00 FIP. There aren’t really any outlandish numbers in the mix either. His 81.2% LOB% might be a tad high, but he’s only allowed two Barrels and could probably have more than 34 strikeouts in those 35 innings given his 15.2% SwStr%.
Sasaki is getting a high Chase Rate, a good number of in-zone Whiffs, and is throwing a lot of strikes. These are all things that the Dodgers expected when they brought him over from Japan, but he had a rough first season and a rough start to this season. His walk rate over those six starts is a little high, but that’s because the Brewers drew five walks in six innings against him two starts ago.
The Braves only have a 6.5% BB% in the month of August against RHP and they are 28th in wOBA at .282 and 29th in wRC+ at 75. They are batting .227/.279/.362 in that split, so it’s been a struggle over the last 568 plate appearances against RHP.
The Dodgers haven’t had much offensive success in that split either, but they’re going up against AJ Smith-Shawver here. He’s made two MLB starts htis season, including his most recent appearance, and allowed six runs on nine hits with seven strikeouts and five walks out of 40 batters faced. He gave up four runs on five hits in 4.1 innings to the Twins last time out.
I still think Smith-Shawver can be a really valuable MLB starter, and he looked great in Triple-A while working his way back. But, he gets a tough assignment tonight with a Dodgers team that had won six in a row before last night’s setback. It seems like they’ve flipped that proverbial switch to focus on the season once again. I think they’ll be motivated to get that one back from last night and their bullpen is in good shape with a big starting pitcher edge.
Rangers vs. White Sox Prediction
Pick: MacKenzie Gore (TEX) Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-114)
A best bet on one of the numerous MLB player props out there for Wednesday. This one is on MacKenzie Gore, who draws a tough assignment against a White Sox lineup that is slashing .229/.331/.458 against LHP in the month of August. That’s good for a .344 wOBA and a 121 wRC+, even though they have a 25.5% K% in that split.
This has been a three true outcomes lineup in August with strikeouts over a quarter of the time, a walk 11.6% of the time, and a league-high 14 home runs. For the most part, Gore has cut down on his walk rate this season and been pretty good about it since mid-June, but he’s probably going to have a lot of pitches per plate appearance in this one.
Gore’s BB% spikes from 6.9% at home to 9.6% on the road, so he’s likely to throw more pitches solely from that, but he also has a 12.1% BB% against LHB and a lower K% this season than he has against righties. I’ll take my chances here that we see some of Gore’s past creep to the forefront given this matchup and that it keeps him from completing six innings. He’s recorded 18+ outs in three of his last five starts, but just three of his last 10 starts in total.
Orioles vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Orioles -106
It’s a battle of the birds once again, as Kyle Bradish and Michael McGreevy are today’s listed starters. We backed the underdog Orioles yesterday and they gave us a no-sweat winner by jumping all over Matthew Liberatore with four in the third and then eight in the fifth. This is a team charging towards .500, while the Cardinals just fell below the break-even mark.
Bradish enters this start with a 3.70 ERA, 4.24 xERA, and a 3.99 FIP over his 138.2 innings of work. He’s been a little bit off in the second half with a 4.02 ERA and some spikes across the board, but the Cardinals come into this game 20th in wOBA in August against RHP at .309 with a .254/.319/.381 slash, so they’re not really hitting for power or drawing many walks. Bradish’s biggest issue in the second half has been his decreased K%, which might not improve much today against the Redbirds, but he’s also not going to run a .347 BABIP against all second half long.
The Regression Monster has found McGreevy. He has a 3.54 ERA with a 5.31 xERA and a 4.19 FIP, as he’s only got 95 K in 137.1 innings of work. In the second half over seven starts, he has a 5.05 ERA with a 5.17 xERA and a 4.37 FIP, so the lack of swings and misses has caught up with him. For the season, he has a .274 BABIP against and a 76.7% LOB%. In the second half, he has a .327 BABIP against and a 63.8% LOB%. Like I said, the lack of Whiffs has caught up.
The Orioles are hitting for power against RHP with a .415 SLG this month. Their 24.1% K% has dragged down their batting average and OBP, but that’s not a huge concern today with a guy like McGreevy on the bump.
Yesterday’s blowout gave the top leverage arms a chance to rest again. Yennier Cano did throw five pitches, but he hadn’t pitched since early last week. Andrew Kittredge and Rico Garcia haven’t pitched since Saturday. All hands are on deck here as the Orioles look to move a game closer to .500 and they have a big starting pitcher advantage in my mind.
