MLB Best Bets Today July 29
Another day on the diamond, but this time, we actually do have a good helping of day games, as it’s a getaway day Wednesday for some and nighttime business as usual for others. We haven’t seen the Trade Deadline levee break just yet, but it’s coming, as we look at what could very well be Tarik Skubal’s final start for the Tigers and a variety of other interesting matchups.
Just a quick note that there will be no MLB article on Thursday due to a scheduling conflict.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 29:
Guardians vs. Reds Prediction
Picks: Over 9 (-105); Brayan Rocchio (CLE) 1+ HR (+630)
Needing the Guardians offense to do anything often leaves bettors and fans disappointed, but if they can’t hit Brady Singer today, just tear it all down and consider the season to be over. Cleveland deploys platoons more often than any team in baseball, so they’re going to load up left-handed batters against Singer, who has been objectively terrible against them this season and throughout his career.
Lefties are slashing .295/.348/.516 this season with a .372 wOBA against Singer. He’s allowed 15 HR in 283 plate appearances. He allowed 15 HR in 404 PA last season and 15 HR in 419 PA two seasons ago, so he’s actually worse this season against them than usual. Even at home, where Singer somehow has a 2.98 ERA, lefties are still batting .257/.333/.442 with a .341 wOBA. His road splits are substantially worse. Either way, lefties hit him hard and Cleveland should have nine of them out there.
It’s been a bit rocky lately for Joey Cantillo, who has a 4.76 ERA over his last 13 starts and has allowed 4+ runs in six of those 13 efforts. In two starts post-ASB, he’s allowed nine runs on 15 hits in just 8.2 innings of work. He gave up his first homer since June 26 and just second since June 7 in his last outing and his low-spin fastball is starting to catch up with him, as hitters are starting to tag his loopy curveball.
I don’t love either of these bullpens, especially Cleveland’s right now. This is a game that should feature some runs.
Regarding the Rocchio dice roll, he’s hit six of his homers from the right side and has hit a season-high four homers in July. He’s a bit of a guess hitter when he’s looking to drive the ball for power and you can absolutely guess against Singer, who throws about 90% sinker/slider. He’s the lefty with the longest price, even though I think others, including the powerless Petey Halpin, should be lower than him.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Cubs -107
The Cubs and Cardinals play what amounts to a toss-up game at Busch Stadium tonight with veteran hurlers Matthew Boyd and Dustin May. Boyd has some negative regression signs in the profile with a 2.31 ERA, but a 4.45 xERA and a 4.51 FIP in his 35 innings since coming off the IL. I think that’s the main reason why this line sits where it does, as Boyd has a 91.6% LOB% in that span of six starts with a below average K%.
That said, the Cardinals offense has been really bad of late. They’re the worst offense in the league in July against righties and rank 21st in wOBA against lefties. They own a .224/.298/.375 slash against southpaws and haven’t really been able to take advantage of a high BB% and a low K%. They also have the third-highest number of PA against LHP this month, so that’s a big sample size relatively speaking.
The Cardinals have clearly had some concerns about May, as he had a big gap between outings from June 21 to July 2 and both of those starts were bad. He hasn’t had a lot of pitch efficiency lately and even last start when he struck out eight Reds over six innings, he had to work around seven hits and his second-highest average exit velocity of the season, so he didn’t locate all that well from PA to PA.
I’ll take the better offense here in the coin flip scenario, as the Cubs are fifth in wOBA against RHP this month with a .266/.339/.445 slash and a .341 wOBA. Their 117 wRC+ also ranks fifth.
