MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, April 13.
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1:35 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees
Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb is not the same pitcher when pitching on the road, posting a career 2.73 ERA at home compared to a 4.05 ERA on the road while Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon looks to cut down on the walks, allowing nine walks across 17 1/3 innings this season, but is back up to getting 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings and is backed by a Yankees lineup that leads the league in runs and home runs per game.
Pick: Yankees -110 Moneyline (Greg’s Handicap Yankees -143)
1:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene has struggled at home throughout his career with a 4.09 ERA and 1.6 home runs per nine innings compared to a 3.48 ERA away from home with 0.9 home runs per nine innings. Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski is transitioning from the bullpen and has struggled to provide length thus far, posting a 5.14 ERA in 8 2/3 innings, allowing 3.9 walks per nine innings throughout his career, with over four walks per nine innings to begin this season.
Picks: Reds Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Reds -1.5 -112 and Total 8.4)
Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Atlanta Braves starter Chris Sale has allowed a whopping 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings in three starts this season after posting a microscopic 2.38 ERA and 2.09 fielding independent with 11.4 strikeouts and just 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed in 2024. Sale’s fielding independent this season is still low at 3.05. Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz appears to be coming into his own at age 25, allowing just two runs in his first two starts of the season, registering 16 strikeouts in 13 innings.
Pick: Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.4)
2:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
After averaging 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings last season, Red Sox starting pitcher Garret Crochet is getting only 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings this season, though that has come with just a 1.45 ERA through three starts. Oftentimes, pitchers struggle against their former teams. Crochet was traded from the White Sox in the offseason, while White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith has allowed just two runs across 11 2/3 innings in his first two starts of the season, but has just 6.9 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 -120 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -1.5 -128 and Total 8.1)
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
The Twins entered the weekend struggling at the plate, ranked 23rd in scoring with fewer than 3.6 runs per game and face Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize, who’s swing in miss stuff in year number two after major surgery appears to be back, getting 12 strikeouts through his first 11 2/3 innings in two starts this season with only one run allowed. Simeon Woods Richardson gets the start at pitcher for the Twins. He owns a lifetime 4.41 ERA but a lower fielding independent at 4.19 with the bullpen that is eighth in ERA at 3.38.
Pick: Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.8)
4:05 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Athletics
Six of the first seven games of the season in Sacramento have gone over the total and Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino enters with a 4.73 ERA and 5.40 fielding independent, allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings. Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga has a very low 2.98 lifetime ERA since coming over from Japan, but a 3.58 fielding independent with four walks per nine innings. He faces a Sacramento lineup that entered Saturday ranked fifth in the league in home runs hit per at-bat.
Pick: New York Mets vs. Athletics Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.6)
