MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, April 26.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
Top MLB Resources:
1:05 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried owns a 1.42 ERA, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in all five of his starts since joining the Yankees. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has seen his strikeout numbers return to form, tallying 22 strikeouts in his last three starts after totaling just four in his first two. He sports a 3.16 ERA this season.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1)
1:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians (Game One)
Guardians starter Ben Lively has done a great job limiting hard contact this season, allowing just 1.1 home runs per nine innings—down from 1.6 over the past two seasons—and owns a 3.86 ERA. Red Sox starter Tanner Houck has struggled with a 7.66 ERA, though that figure is skewed by one blow-up start against Tampa Bay in which he allowed 11 earned runs. Historically, Houck has pitched better on the road, with a 3.65 career ERA away versus 3.89 at home.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers (Game One)
Tigers starter Casey Mize looks back to form in year two following major surgery, posting a 2.22 ERA through four starts. Orioles starter Brandon Young makes his second career start after allowing seven hits and three runs over four innings in his MLB debut. He’s backed by a bullpen ranked 24th in ERA at 4.60, while Detroit’s bullpen ranks 5th with a 2.70 ERA.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -116 (Greg’s Handicapped Line: -143)
2:15 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Despite a 3-0 record and 3.41 ERA, Cardinals starter Sonny Gray has a 3.88 FIP and has allowed 1.6 home runs per nine innings. Brewers starter Quinn Priester is due for regression—he’s posted a 1.93 ERA through three starts but is walking 5.8 batters per nine with just 7.1 strikeouts, leading to a 4.30 FIP. Both bullpens have struggled: Milwaukee’s 5.28 ERA ranks 28th, and St. Louis’ 5.11 ERA ranks 25th.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
3:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Reds starter Hunter Greene has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season, good for a 2.35 ERA. Though the Rockies have hit better at home, their 5 runs per game at Coors ranked just ninth entering Friday. Meanwhile, the Reds’ 5.5 runs per game on the road is heavily skewed by their 24-run outburst against the Orioles last Sunday.
Pick: Under 10.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.6)
4:05 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Clay Holmes has made a successful leap from the bullpen to the rotation, posting a 3.14 ERA and 2.12 FIP with no home runs allowed in five starts. Nationals starter Brad Lord has also moved to the rotation, with a 4.73 ERA and 6.1 walks per nine innings—but he’s yet to allow a home run through six appearances.
Picks: Mets Run Line -1.5 -110 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Mets -1.5 -126, Total: 8.6)
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
A’s starter Jeffrey Springs has struggled with a 5.64 ERA but is striking out 9.3 batters per nine. He’ll benefit from facing a White Sox lineup averaging just 3.1 runs per game. White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon holds a 4.81 ERA and a 5.44 FIP, allowing 1.5 home runs and 5.5 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Athletics Run Line -1.5 -110 (Greg’s Handicap: A’s -1.5 -128)
6:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians (Game Two)
Doug Nikhazy makes his MLB debut for Cleveland. He had mixed results in the minors, posting a 2.98 ERA last season but also a 5.5 walks per nine rate over four minor league seasons. Red Sox starter Walker Buehler owns a 4.23 ERA and has allowed one or two earned runs in each of his last three starts. Boston’s bullpen, however, ranked 19th with a 4.28 ERA entering the weekend.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline +104 and Over 7.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -124, Total: 8.6)
7:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals
Michael Wacha is 0-3 but owns a 4.15 ERA and a strong 3.13 FIP with just one home run allowed in 26 innings. Framber Valdez has a 4.50 ERA and a 3.48 FIP, also with low home run numbers. The Royals came into Friday with the fewest home runs in MLB, but they were still averaging slightly more runs at home (3.8) than Houston was on the road (3.6).
Picks: Royals Moneyline +124 and Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals +115, Total: 7.8)
9:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller’s strikeout rate has dipped to just 6.4 K/9. Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki owns a 3.20 ERA but has as many walks as strikeouts (7.2 per nine), and his 5.15 FIP suggests trouble. The Dodgers’ offense, averaging over 4.9 runs per game at home, provides strong support.
Picks: Dodgers -1.5 -120 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -148, Total: 8.6)
