MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, July 28.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Top MLB Resources:
6:35 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Zach Eflin has allowed a lot of hard contact this season, giving up 2.1 home runs per nine innings and posting a 5.78 ERA with only 6.2 strikeouts per nine. He’s backed by a bullpen whose 4.69 ERA ranks 25th in the league, while the Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks seventh with a 3.66 ERA. Jays starter Chris Bassitt has a 3.88 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -116 and Under 9.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -135, Total 8.9)
6:40 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Slade Cecconi owns a 3.76 ERA, allowing three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts and two or fewer in seven of them. He faces a Rockies team averaging just 3.0 runs per game on the road, second-worst in the league. Cleveland’s offense isn’t much better at home, ranking 28th with 3.7 runs per game. Rockies starter Bradley Blalock holds an 8.67 ERA overall, though it’s a more manageable 4.50 on the road.
Pick: Guardians Run Line -1.5 -115 and Under 9 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -1.5 -128, Total 8.2)
7:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starter Cam Schlittler has been solid in his first two MLB starts, allowing five runs with 10 strikeouts over 10 1/3 innings. Despite missing Aaron Judge, the Yankees still have six players on the roster with at least 14 home runs. Rays starter Drew Rasmussen sports a 2.93 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -112 and Under 9 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -126, Total 8.3)
7:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals veteran Rich Hill, now 45 years old, makes just his second start of the season after posting a 5.41 ERA as a full-time starter in 2023. Braves ace Spencer Strider faces a Royals lineup averaging only 3.0 runs per game at home, last in the league. Strider has a 3.72 ERA with 11 strikeouts per nine and has allowed three runs or fewer in nine consecutive starts.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago White Sox
Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez boasts a 2.40 ERA and has allowed two runs or fewer in nine straight starts. He takes on a White Sox lineup that ranks 27th in scoring with fewer than 3.8 runs per game. Chicago starter Davis Martin owns a 3.89 ERA with 2.4 walks per nine innings and faces a Phillies offense that’s middle-of-the-pack on the road, ranking 16th with 4.3 runs per game.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson has a 4.14 ERA with 3.9 walks per nine innings and a 4.67 FIP, but he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts. Red Sox starter Richard Fitts holds a 4.86 ERA with 2.2 home runs allowed per nine but has given up two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Boston bullpen backs him with a 3.30 ERA, fourth-best in the league.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -117 and Under 9.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Twins -133, Total 8.8)
8:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros
Nationals starter Brad Lord has bounced between starting and relieving, posting a 3.39 ERA overall but 4.15 as a starter. He’s backed by a Nationals bullpen with a league-worst 5.63 ERA. Astros starter Framber Valdez has a 2.67 ERA and has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. He faces a Nationals lineup that averages 4.7 runs per game on the road—10th in the league.
Pick: Astros Run Line -1.5 -105 and Over 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Astros -1.5 -118, Total 8.2)
9:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Mets starter Frankie Montas has struggled with a 4.62 ERA and 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Padres starter Dylan Cease has a similar 4.59 ERA and has given up at least three runs in four of his last five starts, but his 3.57 FIP and 11.4 strikeouts per nine suggest better results are coming.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -128 and Over 8 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Padres -149, Total 8.6)
10:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Mariners starter Luis Castillo has seen his strikeout rate dip to a career-low eight per nine innings. He owns a 3.30 ERA overall, but that balloons to 4.74 on the road. A’s starter JP Sears has a 4.98 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings, which jumps to a 5.61 ERA and over 2.6 home runs allowed at home. He’s supported by a bullpen with the second-worst ERA in the league at 5.38.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total: 10.1)
