MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, May 10.
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4:05 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Andrew Heaney has seen a significant decline in his strikeout rate compared to past seasons, now at 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings—his lowest since 2015. However, he’s posted a 3.18 ERA and allowed just 0.9 home runs per nine innings. Braves starter AJ Smith-Shawver owns a 3.00 ERA, having allowed three runs or fewer in all five starts this season, and he faces a Pirates lineup averaging only 3.1 runs per game, last in the league.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starter Trevor Williams has a 5.86 ERA this season, but is due for some positive regression with a 4.18 fielding independent. He’s allowing 1.3 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings. Cardinals starter Andre Pallante has a 4.75 ERA and is giving up 1.5 home runs and four walks per nine, with a 5.44 FIP suggesting further struggles.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +100 (Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -107)
4:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starter Taj Bradley has struggled in 2025, with his strikeout rate falling to 6.6 per nine innings after posting double digits in his first two seasons. He carries a 4.43 ERA and a 4.63 FIP, with four walks per nine innings. Brewers starter Tobias Myers has a 3.65 ERA and has issued 5.1 walks per nine, but has only allowed one home run in 12 1/3 innings. He’s backed by a Brewers offense averaging 5.3 runs per game on the road, fifth-best in the league.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline +119 (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -109)
6:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cleveland Guardians
Phillies starter Ranger Suárez has struggled since the 2024 All-Star Break, posting a 5.65 ERA in the second half last season and giving up seven runs in 3 2/3 innings in his 2025 debut. Guardians starter Tanner Bibee is also underperforming with 6.6 strikeouts and 2.1 home runs allowed per nine innings, leading to a 4.26 ERA and 6.13 FIP.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
Rangers ace Jacob deGrom is returning to form, allowing just four runs over his past four starts to lower his ERA to 2.61. Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has a 3.79 ERA with a strong 3.42 FIP and is striking out 10.9 per nine innings. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranked 28th in scoring entering Friday, averaging just over 3.2 runs per game.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 6.8)
7:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Red Sox starter Garrett Crochet has been dominant with a 2.02 ERA and only three home runs allowed in 49 innings, though a 2.82 FIP and 3.7 walks per nine suggest slight regression is possible. Royals starter Cole Ragans is due for major positive regression, with a 3.79 ERA but a 2.38 FIP and a staggering 14.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He’ll face a Red Sox offense that ranks third in the AL with 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.7)
7:15 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Minnesota Twins
Giants starter Logan Webb has stark home/road splits, with a career 2.67 ERA and 0.4 HR/9 at home versus a 4.08 ERA and 0.8 HR/9 on the road. Twins starter Joe Ryan has a career 3.65 ERA at home compared to 4.05 on the road. Minnesota’s offense is averaging 4.8 runs per game at home, third in the AL.
Pick: Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.6)
8:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies entered Friday with a 6-31 record, on pace for a historically poor 26-136 season. They send Bradley Blalock to the mound, who has an 8.03 ERA and is allowing 2.2 home runs per nine innings. Padres starter Stephen Kolek has a career 4.67 ERA but a 3.49 FIP and has limited home runs to just 0.7 per nine innings.
Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 -124 (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -1.5 -136)
