MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, May 9.
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6:45 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
Though Nationals starting pitcher Mitchell Parker has a solid 3.48 ERA, his fielding independent pitching (FIP) is 4.06, with 4.4 walks and 4.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starter Erick Fedde has a 4.76 ERA with five strikeouts and five walks per nine innings, but he’s backed by a far better bullpen. The Nationals’ bullpen ERA of 6.94 is the worst in the league.
Picks: Cardinals Moneyline +100 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -116 and Total 8.7)
7:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Cubs starter Jameson Taillon enters Friday with a 3.86 ERA and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen ranks 23rd with a 4.53 ERA, while the Mets’ bullpen ranks eighth at 3.18. Mets starter Clay Holmes owns a 2.95 ERA and has yet to allow a home run this season, but he’s issued 3.2 walks per nine innings and has managed just five strikeouts over his last two starts (11 innings). He faces a Cubs lineup that leads the league with nearly 5.9 runs per game.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3 Runs)
7:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cleveland Guardians
Phillies starter Aaron Nola has struggled to a 4.61 ERA and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. Historically, he’s been worse on the road, with a 4.22 ERA away compared to 3.24 at home. Guardians starter Gavin Williams carries a 5.06 ERA and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine. Both bullpens come in shaky—Philadelphia ranks 25th in bullpen ERA (3.78), while Cleveland is 14th at 3.83.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1 Runs)
7:40 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
The Royals offense has been underwhelming, ranking 27th with under 3.4 runs per game, but their bullpen has been a bright spot with a 2.90 ERA (5th in MLB). The Red Sox bullpen sits 17th at 4.04. Royals starter Michael Lorenzen has a 4.23 ERA and is allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings. He’ll face a Red Sox offense averaging nearly 5.4 runs per game at home but closer to 4.4 on the road. Boston starter Hunter Dobbins owns a 3.78 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings through three career starts.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.7)
8:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is allowing heavy contact, surrendering a league-high 57 hits in seven starts. He has a 5.50 ERA, 2.1 home runs allowed per nine, and just 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Padres starter Randy Vasquez has struggled with control (6.7 walks per nine) and has just 3.6 strikeouts per nine, yet carries a 3.90 ERA. The Rockies own the highest home ERA in the National League.
Picks: Padres -1.5 -110 and Over 11 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -1.5 -146 and Total 11.4)
9:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Dodgers rookie Roki Sasaki has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all seven of his starts, compiling a 3.89 ERA. Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been unlucky with a 5.92 ERA, though his FIP is 4.06. He’s racking up 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings, with a 4.42 ERA at home compared to 7.32 on the road.
Pick: Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.2)
10:05 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Yankees starter Will Warren has struggled this season, posting a 5.65 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 4.7 walks per nine innings. A’s starter Osvaldo Bido has a 4.71 ERA and a 5.76 FIP, giving up 1.7 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine. Oakland’s 5.33 home ERA is second-highest in the majors, with park factors playing a big role.
Picks: Athletics Moneyline +127 and Over 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Athletics +113 and Total 10.7)
