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Game 4: Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic – 8:00 pm ET
While the Magic were able to win Game 3, the Pistons put themselves in a great position to steal the victory. Despite trailing by as many as 17 points, Detroit actually had a 105-104 lead with 2:52 left. From there, Franz Wagner, who has one of the shakiest jumpers in basketball, buried a triple and a tough midrange two to ice the game. Of course, that goes into the win column. Nothing can be taken away from Orlando. However, the Pistons did look like the better team in the second half, which marks two games in a row in which Detroit has looked a little more like a No. 1 seed. So, with the Pistons now essentially playing with their season on the line, it feels like Detroit is the right team to back — much like New York was in a pivotal Game 4 against Atlanta.
Detroit is also 13-4 straight-up when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite this year. That shows you how good this Pistons team has been at bouncing back this season. It’s also hard not to feel like the Magic won’t shoot 15 for 33 from three again. Orlando made only 11.7 triples per game during the regular season, and the team shot only 34.1% from deep. That said, it doesn’t seem sustainable for the Magic to continue shooting the three-ball well against the league’s second-best defense.
In addition to liking Detroit, I also think Tobias Harris will score at least 16 points. Harris has had at least 16 points in all three games so far, and he’s coming off a 23-point outing in Game 3. The Magic are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending pull-up jumpers in the midrange area. That’s one of the best places you can struggle to guard, but it works well for Harris. He likes using his big frame to bump his defender off and pull up from 10 to 15 feet away. Harris also knocked down two threes last game. That was a good sign for him. But overall, the real reason to like this is that Harris is the only player outside of Cade Cunningham with the confidence to go out and take tough shots. As long as he is putting up a good amount of shots, I’m going to want to play his Overs.
Bet: Pistons ML (-133 – 1.5 units)
Bet: Tobias Harris Over 15.5 Points (-115)
Game 4: Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns – 9:30 pm ET
There’s a good chance this series ends here. The Suns have put up a good fight, which probably won’t change in Game 4. In fact, the team is saying all the right things, and Dillon Brooks said he wants to check Shai Gilgeous-Alexander here. However, Oklahoma City is just a little too big and talented for Phoenix. That said the Suns would need to really shoot the lights out in order to pull off the upset. I won’t rule it out completely, but I’m also not banking on it.
What will I take to the bank? I do like Jalen Green to have at least 19 points. Over the last 15 games, Green is averaging 21.1 points per game. He has also scored at least 21 points in back-to-back games in this series, and he had 26 in Game 3. Green just continues to look more and more comfortable in this offense, and he’s one of the few players on the team with the confidence required to attack an elite Thunder defense. If he has his jumper going, he might even score another 25 or so.
Another player with the confidence required to play with this OKC team is Collin Gillespie, who I like to finish with at least four assists here. Even with Grayson Allen returning last game, Gillespie played 33 minutes and had five assists. That’s now two games in a row with at least five assists, so I like the idea of getting +142 odds on Gillespie to finish with four assists. However, I’m not willing to play this until we know the status of Jordan Goodwin, who is listed as questionable. I’d rather a slightly worse number but the peace of mind of knowing Gillespie will flirt with 30 minutes again.
Bet: Jalen Green Over 18.5 Points (-125)
Game 5: Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets – 10:30 pm ET
I don’t have any real thoughts on how Game 5 will play out from a spread perspective, but I do think it ends with a Denver victory. However, laying double digits with a team that has looked pretty lifeless thus far isn’t something I’m looking to do. I also don’t have a good feel for the total, as I’m not exactly sure how Minnesota will approach this game without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo.
The only play I do like for Game 5 is Jaden McDaniels to secure at least five rebounds. McDaniels had 10 rebounds in Game 3, then he followed that up with eight boards in Game 4. McDaniels has now had at least seven rebounds in four of the last five games, and he has also proven to be a highly competitive postseason player. I don’t see him taking a night off when looking at the dirty work.
I do, however, have another way of approaching this, but it applies to the series and not just the game. I’m taking Denver to win the series at +132 odds. I know the Nuggets pooped the bed in Game 4, as they were gifted a golden opportunity to tie the series up and then potentially win two in a row to close it out in six. But I do still like Denver to find a way through. I just feel that Game 4 result will be viewed as an embarrassment, along with something that makes the next series harder. I don’t think it’ll be the turning point here. That will be the injuries.
Ayo Dosunmu played out of his mind in Game 4, scoring 43 points in 42 minutes in the win. But Minnesota is going to have a hard time generating easy offense without Edwards’ ability to create off the dribble. Also, DiVincenzo’s floor-spacing ability will be missed. Of course, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray still have a lot to figure out the rest of the series, but two of the final three games will be played in Denver. That said, I think Game 6 will decide this series, and the Game 5 spread suggests the Nuggets will be favored in Minnesota.
Bet: Jaden McDaniels Over 4.5 Rebounds (-125)
Bet: Nuggets To Win Series (+132 – 2 units)
Additional Plays
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