MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, May 11.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:35 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers was skipped in the rotation for a few days due to illness but is back and looking to build off of his strong start to the season. He has a 3.03 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings and the support of a bullpen that ranks second in the league in ERA at 3.25. Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young owns a 4.35 ERA and 5.82 fielding independent with just 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.3 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings
Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 +115
(Greg’s Handicap Yankees -1.5 -104)
8:05 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Michael Soroka has pitched better than his 4.14 ERA would indicate. He has a 3.40 fielding independent with one home run and 2.7 walks per nine innings to go with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi seems to be rounding into form. While Eovaldi has a 4.15 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed this season, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and has the support of a bullpen that has the best ERA in the league at 2.80. Texas also has the league’s lowest scoring offense at home with 2.8 runs per game.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Under 8 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.7)
8:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has seen his strikeouts per nine inning rate dip to a career-low 6.8. He has been plenty effective with a 2.98 ERA, allowing 0.7 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Peter Lambert has been a bright spot for an Astros unit that is last in team ERA at 5.56: with no other team owning worse than a 4.84 ERA entering Sunday. Lambert has a solid 2.42 ERA and 2.82 fielding independent with no home runs allowed across 22 1/3 innings in his four appearances with 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The Mariners rank 22nd in road scoring with four runs per game.
Picks: Astros Moneyline +125 and Under 8.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Astros +119 and Total 8.3)
10:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki has had a bad start to the season with a 5.97 ERA and 6.83 fielding independent with 2.5 home runs and 4.7 walks per nine innings. He faces a Giants lineup that is last in the league in scoring with less than 3.2 runs per game. Giants starting pitcher Trevor McDonald has had a very small sample size at the MLB level of 25 innings across five appearances, but has been outstanding in them with a 1.44 ERA, giving up just two total home runs and three walks. He has the support of a bullpen that is 10th in ERA at 3.85.
Pick: Giants vs. Dodgers Under 9.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.9)
