The 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia (also known at the Italian Open) is in full swing at the Foro Italico in Rome. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks, digging into matchup tactics, surface tendencies, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays for Monday, May 11 below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Andrea Pellegrino vs. Frances Tiafoe
Taking a clay-court specialist against Tiafoe didn’t work last round, but I’m not exactly willing to go away from it. While Tiafoe impressed me with his level against Ignacio Buse, that was a match that easily could have gone the other way. Buse just didn’t play big points well, his forehand let him down a bit, and he looked completely cooked in the third set. Well, I’m not sure Pellegrino will give away as many points as Buse did, especially with the Italian essentially getting a walkover against Arthur Fils last round.
Pellegrino just should be very fresh heading into this match, even though he did have to go through qualifying here. Well, if he’s fresh, he should be a problem for Tiafoe. Pellegrino is great at extending rallies, he utilizes topspin well, and he’s just very clever about putting points together on clay. After all, this is a guy that won three clay-court Challenger events last year.
There’s just a ton of clay-court experience for Pellegrino, and Tiafoe simply doesn’t have that. Also, Pellegrino is an Italian playing in Rome. He should have the crowd in his corner, even with Tiaoe being a fan favorite everywhere.
Bet: Pellegrino +1.5 Sets (-139 – 1.5 units) & Pellegrino ML (+210 – 0.5 units)
Hamad Medjedovic vs. Mariano Navone
Can Medjedovic’s body hold up if this turns into a physical three-set match? That’s really my only question heading into this one. If it does, the Serbian should be able to beat Navone.
Navone is coming off a big win over Felix Auger-Aliassime, and the Argentinean has really turned his season around after a slow start to 2026. However, while he is an awesome clay-court performer, I do think Medjedovic’s edge as a server will make a big difference here — even with Navone being a strong returner.
Medjedovic actually beat Navone earlier this year, winning 6-2, 6-7 (3), 6-4, 6-2 at the Australian Open. And while those conditions definitely favored a power-forward Medjedovic, I don’t think these ones will neutralize him enough for Navone to completely flip the script.
Bet: Medjedovic ML (-147 – 1.5 units)
Anastasia Potapova vs. Jessica Pegula
Potapova is a completely different player in 2026 than she was in 2025. While her 23-17 record last year was nothing to sneeze at, Potapova is 17-8 since the start of this season. She has also been on an absolute tear since the end of Indian Wells, which is a stretch that includes wins over Elena Rybakina and Karolina Muchova.
Potapova is just a dangerous ball-striker, a good mover, and someone that can really overwhelm opponents when she’s in a groove. Well, Pegula shouldn’t be an exception to that.
If Potapova shows up looking anything like the player she has been the last couple of months, I don’t see this being a straight-set win for the American. In fact, I don’t see any reason Potapova can’t win this one outright.
Bet: Potapova +1.5 Sets (-152 – 1.5 units) & Potapova ML (+175 – 0.5 units)
