MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, May 7.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:35 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore owns a 4.67 ERA this season, but his 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings and 4.07 fielding independent are good indicators that he’s pitching better than his ERA may suggest, and he is supported by a bullpen that leads the league in ERA at 2.78, while Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers has a 3.03 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings this season but faces a Rangers lineup that has performed far better on the road than at home, ranking last in runs per game at home with 2.7 while ranking 13th away from home with nearly 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline +166
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers +146
1:05 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals
Twins starting pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson has struggled this season, supplying a 6.49 ERA with only 4.4 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 2.1 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings, while Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin is getting a career-high 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings but has a 4.93 ERA with 3.9 walks per nine innings. At the plate, the Nationals are sixth in scoring with 5.1 runs per game and face a Twins unit that ranks 28th in bullpen ERA at 5.26.
Pick: Twins vs. Nationals Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.6
3:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott, in his two-start sample size at the MLB level this season, has a 4.26 ERA with 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings, but a 5.67 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 7.1 walks per nine innings after allowing two home runs per nine innings at the minor league level last season, while Rockies starting pitcher Jose Quintana appears due for regression on his current 4.07 ERA, as he owns a 6.31 fielding independent with 4.4 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings, but should benefit from facing a Mets lineup that is 29th in scoring with 3.5 runs per game.
Pick: Rockies Moneyline +130 and Over 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rockies -104 and Total 11.3
3:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has gotten off to a nice start to the season with a 2.85 ERA, allowing only one home run across 41 innings in his seven starts, but has struggled throughout his career on the road with a lifetime 4.01 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed at home compared to a lifetime 4.91 ERA on the road with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed, while Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen has a 4.45 ERA this season, but his 3.64 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings point toward positivity. The Pirates have also seen a dip in offensive production on the road, ranking second in scoring at home with nearly 5.9 runs per game but 23rd away from home with just over 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -104
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -127
6:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins
Orioles starting pitcher Cade Povich has a 4.41 ERA with an even higher 5.10 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, but should benefit from facing a Marlins team that ranks 27th in home runs per at-bat, while Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer has put it all together this season with a 2.68 ERA, allowing 0.5 home runs per nine innings with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that is seventh in ERA at 3.42.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -118 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -127 and Total 7.9
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn owns a 4.30 ERA and 4.88 fielding independent this season, getting 7.1 strikeouts while allowing 4.3 walks per nine innings, while Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter has pitched better than his 5.28 ERA would indicate, with his fielding independent sitting at 3.58 while allowing 0.9 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings. He faces an Athletics lineup that is 26th in scoring on the road with 3.6 runs per game.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -128 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -151 and Total 8.1
