Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 7, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 176-96 SU (+41.35 units, ROI: 15.2%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 41-27-1 (+10.55 units) in SF night games with starter Logan Webb against opponents with a >= 0.500 win pct since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-SF (o/u at 7.5)
Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 530-425 for +41.85 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-175 vs LAA), LA DODGERS (-172 vs CIN)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are just over the profitability line at 201-161 for +0.55 units.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-131 vs STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 61-53 for -10.07 units for an ROI of -8.8%.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+142 at LAD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 85-130 for -49.04 units and an ROI of -22.8%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-175 vs LAA), MILWAUKEE (-126 vs CHC), LA DODGERS (-172 vs CIN)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 142-212 start for -26.06 units (-7.4% ROI) after losing about 36 units over the 2-1/2 months. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory, and continues to fall fast!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+157 at SD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 94-53 for -23.86 units, ROI -16.2%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-192 vs WSH), TORONTO (-206 at ATH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 288-355 for -30.72 units, and comes off a rough three-week stretch, giving back over 20 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+153 at PHI), NY METS (+113 at MIA), CLEVELAND (+119 at BAL), ARIZONA (-107 at KC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 243-169 for +42.80 units, an ROI of +10.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-126 vs CHC), DETROIT (-120 vs MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 175-202 start for -39.86 units (ROI -10.6%).
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+142 at LAD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 152-173 for +1.96 units. However, it has lost -11.3 units over the last two months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-143 vs CLE), WASHINGTON (+157 at SD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 530-425 for +41.85 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-175 vs LAA), LA DODGERS (-172 vs CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 422-479 but for +89.62 units and an ROI of 9.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+153 at PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 163-203 for -37.91 units and an ROI of -10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR KANSAS CITY vs AZ (-112 CURRENTLY)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -106 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 459-394 but for -95.54 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-175 vs LAA), MILWAUKEE (-126 vs CHC), DETROIT (-120 vs MIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-131 vs STL)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 173-71 for +14.48 units and an ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 476-423 record for +46.18 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+142 at LAD), ST LOUIS (+109 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,228-2,106 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -269.92 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-136 vs NYM), ST LOUIS (+109 at SF), CINCINNATI (+142 at LAD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2298-2878 (44.4%) for -266.47 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+144 at BOS), MINNESOTA (-101 at DET), TORONTO (-206 at ATH)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 683-572 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.02 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-131 vs STL), ATHLETICS (+169 vs TOR)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 401-203 (66.4%) for +57.74 units and an ROI of 9.6%!
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-192 vs WSH)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 176-96 SU (+41.35 units, ROI: 15.2%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 338-348 run (+14.21 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 vs CLE)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 610-596 for +25.34 units, good for +2.1% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA +153 (+13 diff), CINCINNATI +142 (+12)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN DIEGO -192 (+23 diff), DETROIT -120 (+16), BOSTON -175 (+13), KANSAS CITY -112 (+13), TORONTO -206 (+12)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) NEW YORK-NL (65-78) at (954) MIAMI (72-72)
Trend: MIA is 5-12 (-10.53 units) as a short favorite (within line range of -115 to -140) with starter Eury Perez in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-136 vs NYM)
(957) WASHINGTON (67-78) at (958) SAN DIEGO (75-68)
Trend: WSH is 10-28 (-12.68 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+157 at SD)
(959) ST LOUIS (72-72) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (59-85)
Trend: Under the total is 41-27-1 (+10.55 units) in SF night games with starter Logan Webb against opponents with a >= 0.500 win pct since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-SF (o/u at 7.5)
(961) CINCINNATI (69-74) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (86-57)
Trend: LAD is 26-46 (-25.37 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs WSH)
(963) CLEVELAND (73-71) at (964) BALTIMORE (69-75)
Trend: Over the total is 16-5 (+10.40 units) when CLE faces non-divisional AL teams with starter Joey Cantillo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-BAL (o/u at 7)
(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-89) at (966) BOSTON (79-65)
Trend: BOS is 21-32 (-10.15 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-1.5 vs LAA)
(967) MINNESOTA (68-75) at (968) DETROIT (65-78)
Trend: Under the total is 17-5 (+11.60 units) with starter Troy Melton in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DET (o/u at 8)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): ATLANTA (+153 at PHI), NY METS (+113 at MIA), CLEVELAND (+114 at BAL), ARIZONA (-107 at KC), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at MIL), ST LOUIS (+109 at SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-206 at ATH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-107 at KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-120 vs MIN)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 13-26 (33.3%) -13.24 units, ROI: -33.9%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-143 vs CLE)
