MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, September 17.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Dodgers had to unload most of their bullpen on Wednesday, with Blake Snell getting pulled after less than 20 pitches, and will likely turn to Justin Wrobleski for some bulk innings. Wrobleski overall this season has a 3.78 ERA, but since the All-Star Break owns a 7.09 ERA with over 3.5 home runs per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer owns a 5.38 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings, but benefits from the Dodgers lineup being banged up with many sluggers on the injured list, most notably Shohei Ohtani.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +144
Greg’s Handicap: Reds +134
1:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The starting pitching matchup is lopsided, as Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has a 2.81 ERA with only 0.8 home runs and 1.5 walks per nine innings, while Athletics starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs has a 5.93 ERA with 2.2 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings. Springs is supported by a bullpen that is last in the league in ERA with a 5.96 bullpen ERA since July 1.
Pick: Rays Run Line -1.5 -114 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -1.5 -124 and Total 8.2
3:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon has pitched to a ton of contact this season with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings and overall has a 5.55 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings. While Padres starting pitcher Michael King has a nice 3.03 ERA, he also has a higher 4.23 fielding independent with 3.3 walks and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that since the All-Star Break is fourth in scoring with 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 -102 and Over 11 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -1.5 -118 and Total 11.5
7:15 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has pitched much better than his season-long 4.69 ERA with 1.9 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings would indicate, giving up two runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts. Since the beginning of July, Nola has a 3.18 ERA with three runs or fewer allowed in 12 of his past 13 starts. Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean owns a 3.24 ERA with 9.9 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed and has a 2.33 ERA in his last 13 starts with two earned runs or fewer allowed in 11 of those starts. The Phillies are last in the National League in road scoring with 4.1 runs per game, while the Mets are 22nd overall in scoring with 4.3 runs per game.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline +121 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -103 and Total 7.8
9:38 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley has a 3.81 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings while getting 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He benefits from facing an Angels lineup that is last in scoring at home with less than 3.6 runs per game and overall since the All-Star Break is scoring less than 3.5 runs per game. Angels starting pitcher Walbert Ureña has a 2.88 ERA with 8.6 strikeouts and 0.6 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Twins vs. Angels Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
