MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, August 25.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
4:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Harrison has some of the largest home and road splits in the league, overall supplying a 2.84 ERA with 11.2 strikeouts and 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. At home, he owns a 1.26 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 5.01 ERA with nearly two home runs per nine innings allowed away from home. Mets starting pitcher Zac Thornton has a 3.04 ERA but a much higher 4.10 fielding independent while pitching to lots of contact with only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The Brewers enter the series fourth in scoring with nearly five runs per game, while the Mets offense is averaging over 4.6 runs per game in 27 games without Juan Soto after averaging 4.05 runs per game prior to the injury.
Pick: Mets Moneyline +147 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Mets +138 and Total 8.1
6:40 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Since the All-Star Break, the Tigers are second in the American League in scoring with nearly 5.3 runs per game and will look to get to starting pitcher Ian Seymour, who owns a 4.17 ERA with 10.9 strikeouts and 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. Tigers starting pitcher Jackson Jobe owns a 4.50 ERA with 7.1 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings and faces a Rays offense that is eighth in road scoring with 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Rays vs. Tigers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
7:05 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
The Astros are giving rookie Ethan Pecko his second career MLB start after he allowed two runs in 3 2/3 innings last week against the Los Angeles Angels following a 4.94 ERA at the Triple-A level for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys. Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has had ups and downs this season with a 4.42 ERA, 1.4 home runs, and 3.2 walks per nine innings, but has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 20 of his 25 appearances this season and is supported by a bullpen that is second in the league in ERA at 2.97.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -162
7:07 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo is posting a 4.71 ERA with 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings, and while his 4.08 fielding independent points toward positivity, he has been far less effective on the road, supplying a 3.98 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed at home compared to a 5.63 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed on the road. Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer has pitched better recently with two runs or fewer allowed in four of his past five starts, but has a 7.40 ERA and 6.53 fielding independent with 2.4 home runs and four walks per nine innings. He should get extra run support with the Royals bullpen ranking 29th in ERA at 5.21.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -115 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -151 and Total 9.1
7:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom had an injury scare earlier in the month against the Los Angeles Angels and overall this season owns a 3.77 ERA, but his 3.11 fielding independent with 11.2 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings points toward positivity. He looked good in his last start with six shutout innings, 10 strikeouts, and one hit allowed against the Washington Nationals. White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all nine of his starts since the beginning of July, but his 3.96 ERA might be in for regression, as he has a 4.64 fielding independent with 7.4 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -105
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -125
9:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt is the most profitable pitcher in baseball since his return to the starting rotation on June 30, posting a 1.78 ERA with a 9-1 record in this stretch and allowing two runs or fewer in nine of those starts. However, he has been pitching to a lot of contact with only 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings in this stretch. The Cubs lead the league in scoring with over 5.2 runs per game and send Clay Holmes to the mound for a start, who is also pitching to a lot of contact with a 2.49 ERA despite getting only 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. His 3.43 fielding independent with three walks per nine innings issued points toward regression.
Pick: Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has pitched better recently with three runs or fewer allowed in each of his past five starts, but overall this season is carrying a 5.12 ERA and 4.92 fielding independent with two home runs and three walks per nine innings. Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has a 4.18 ERA but a lower 3.76 fielding independent with a career-low 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.1 home runs, and 2.1 walks per nine innings, with his ERA lowering to 3.40 at home compared to 5.19 away from home.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -134
