MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, June 23.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has struggled this season with a 4.92 ERA, but his 3.98 fielding independent and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings point toward positive regression. Mariners starter George Kirby owns a 4.10 ERA and 3.41 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 2.1 walks allowed per nine innings. However, he is supported by a lineup that ranks 22nd in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, while the Pirates entered the series leading the league in home scoring at 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline +104
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -115
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodón owns a 3.50 ERA and 3.66 fielding independent, but he is allowing five walks per nine innings. He is supported by a Yankees lineup that is still averaging 4.9 runs per game this month despite the absence of Aaron Judge.
Tigers starter Casey Mize has been outstanding, posting a 2.58 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings and only 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 15th in ERA at 3.92.
Pick: Yankees vs. Tigers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Royals rank last in the league in road scoring at 3.6 runs per game and will face Rays starter Shane McClanahan, who owns a 3.33 ERA and 2.93 fielding independent with 9.2 strikeouts and 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Royals starter Luinder Avila has pitched better than his 5.50 ERA suggests, posting a 4.56 fielding independent with one home run allowed per nine innings. He has also allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
Pick: Royals vs. Rays Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.4
6:45 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Phillies starter Jesús Luzardo has pitched better than his 4.20 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.33 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings. However, he now faces a Nationals lineup that entered the series leading the league in scoring at more than 5.4 runs per game and has been especially effective against left-handed pitching, leading the league in OPS versus southpaws.
The Nationals are expected to use Zack Littell in some capacity, potentially behind an opener. While Littell owns a 5.45 ERA and 6.67 fielding independent with 2.5 home runs allowed per nine innings overall, he has posted a 3.20 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings when pitching behind an opener. The Phillies rank last in the National League in road scoring with 3.7 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +146
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals +139
7:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Cubs starting pitcher Edward Cabrera has struggled this season, posting a 5.21 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Mets starter Kodai Senga has been even worse, recording a 9.00 ERA with 2.6 home runs and 6.4 walks allowed per nine innings.
The Mets are supported by a lineup that ranks 26th in scoring with just over four runs per game, while the Cubs rank eighth at 4.75 runs per game.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline +108 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -122 and Total 8.7
8:40 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starter Sean Sullivan has struggled in his first two MLB starts, allowing eight runs in seven innings. At Triple-A Albuquerque this season, he posted a 5.60 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA at 5.12.
While the Red Sox rank last in the league in home scoring at 3.4 runs per game, they are 15th in road scoring at 4.4 runs per game. Red Sox starter Sonny Gray owns a 3.12 ERA with only one home run and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings, but he may be due for regression with a 3.88 fielding independent, only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and a 3.73 ERA on the road compared to his overall numbers.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Rockies Over 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 11.6
9:37 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels pitching staff is currently in shambles, as Ryan Johnson is expected to contribute in some capacity in this game. Johnson owns a 12.83 ERA while allowing 3.4 home runs and 5.4 walks per nine innings with only 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Angels bullpen ranks 25th in ERA at 4.75, while the Orioles bullpen ranks 21st at 4.50. Orioles starter Shane Baz owns a 4.04 ERA with 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a lineup that ranks ninth in scoring at 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Orioles vs. Angels Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3
9:45 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starter Robbie Ray owns a 4.07 ERA this season but a higher 4.96 fielding independent with 1.6 home runs and 4.3 walks allowed per nine innings. He has been significantly better at home, posting a 3.55 ERA with 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings compared to a 4.54 ERA and more than 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.
Athletics starter Aaron Civale owns a 4.91 ERA and 5.39 fielding independent with 6.3 strikeouts and 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA at 5.02.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -119
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -138
