MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, June 30.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:35 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Trey Gibson has not been great through seven career appearances, posting a 5.64 ERA, but he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of those seven outings. White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde is generating only six strikeouts per nine innings but has maintained a 4.34 ERA despite allowing 1.7 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings. Both bullpens have been mediocre, with the White Sox ranking 16th in bullpen ERA at 4.19 and the Orioles ranking 19th at 4.35.
Pick: White Sox vs. Orioles Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.6
7:07 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has struggled recently, allowing 13 runs over eight innings in his past two starts, raising his ERA to 4.36 this season while allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings. Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean owns a 4.03 ERA while recording 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings, though he has also issued 3.4 walks per nine innings. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that could be due for a boost, as Toronto ranks 23rd in scoring with 4.1 runs per game but is also third in fewest strikeouts per at-bat.
Pick: Mets vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3
7:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Connelly Early has posted a solid 3.59 ERA this season, but his elevated 4.72 fielding independent, along with 1.5 home runs and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings, points toward regression. He faces a Nationals offense that leads the league in scoring with more than 5.3 runs per game. Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli owns a 4.00 ERA but a lower 3.53 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks last in the American League in home scoring with 3.6 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +120 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -104 and Total 8.4
7:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat has struggled this season, posting a 5.47 ERA while allowing 1.7 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder pitches to plenty of contact, posting a 4.81 ERA with 7.4 strikeouts and 4.5 walks per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that ranks third in scoring with nearly 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Reds vs. Brewers Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron has pitched better than his 4.50 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.42 fielding independent while allowing 0.9 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Griffin Jax has been significantly better as a starter, posting an 8.00 ERA with three home runs per nine innings out of the bullpen compared to a 2.40 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings as a starter. He faces a Royals lineup that ranks 21st in scoring with 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Rays vs. Royals Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.9
8:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Mike Burrows has struggled this season, posting a 5.48 ERA while allowing two home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings. Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan owns a 3.18 ERA and a 2.81 fielding independent with 10.4 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a Twins lineup that ranks seventh in the league in scoring with just under 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -116
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -129
