USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 | Wednesday, July 1 | 8 p.m. ET | Levi’s Stadium | Santa Clara
USA (-265) | Draw (+390) | Bosnia and Herzegovina (+800)
Over 2.5 Goals (-125) | Under 2.5 Goals (+100)
USA -1.5 (+105) | Bosnia and Herzegovina +1.5 (-135)
The United States face Bosnia and Herzegovina at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on July 1 with a place in the Round of 16 on the line — and a monkey on their back. The Americans are winless in 13 straight against European opposition. The last European side they beat? You guessed it — Bosnia and Herzegovina, winning 1-0 in a December 2021 friendly.
The USA cruised through Group D, dismantling Paraguay 4-1 and taking care of Australia by half-time 2-0. With top spot secured, Mauricio Pochettino decided to heavily rotate his side for the final group game, and they fell 3-2 to Türkiye in a dead rubber. The late stumble changes nothing about a dominant campaign.
Bosnia and Herzegovina finished third in Group B on four points — drawing 1-1 with Canada, losing 4-1 to Switzerland, then bouncing back to beat Qatar 3-1. It’s the first time in their history they’ve reached the knockout rounds.
The Americans have the crowd, the pedigree, the pressure and a winless streak they want to break. Bosnia and Herzegovina have nothing to lose and everything to gain. All the ingredients are there for a classic.
USA TEAM NEWS
Christian Pulišić is available to start after coming on in the second half against Türkiye. Speaking after the 3-2 defeat, Mauricio Pochettino praised Captain America’s performance, saying, “One of the objectives in that game was to win, but [also] to provide Christian between 30 and 40 minutes. He finished well … it was a good impact when he was on the pitch.”
Auston Trusty injured his left ankle in the closing minutes of Thursday’s match against Türkiye and briefly left the field for medical treatment before returning to the pitch. He played down the concern post-match, telling reporters “I’ll be fine,” though his availability for this game has not yet been confirmed. He will be an option from the bench if he makes it.
With yellow cards cleared after the Group Stage, Pochettino can restore Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards, and Antonee Robinson to the lineup, having chosen not to risk them against Türkiye.
USA Predicted Lineup 3-4-2-1
Manager: Mauricio Pochettino
GK: M. Freese
CB: A. Freeman | CB: T. Ream | CB: C. Richards
RWB: S. Dest | CM: T. Adams | CM: M. Tillman | LWB: A. Robinson
AM: W. McKennie | AM: C. Pulišić
CF: F. Balogun
BOSNIA and HERZEGOVINA TEAM NEWS
Sergej Barbarez has no injury or suspension issues now that Tarik Muharemović is available after serving a one-match ban for his red card against Switzerland. The Sassuolo center-back will replace Stjepan Radeljić, who deputized in his absence.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Predicted Lineup 4-4-2
Manager: Sergej Barbarez
GK: N. Vasilj
RB: A. Malić | CB: T. Muharemović | CB: N. Katić | LB: S. Kolašinac
RM: E. Bajraktarević | CM: B. Tahirović | CM: I. Bašić | LM: K. Alajbegović
CF: E. Demirović | CF: E. Džeko
MATCH BREAKDOWN
I don’t hold much hope for Bosnia and Herzegovina coming into this match and I’m confident this is where their tournament draws to a close.
Against Canada they led through an early set-piece but were pegged back late on, and their lead only survived as long as it did thanks to a stunning Sead Kolašinac goal-line clearance in the 53rd minute, the former Arsenal man somehow redirecting the ball onto the crossbar to deny Richie Laryea.
Their goal was all about height, physicality and European know-how. From Ivan Bašić’s corner, Kolašinac flicked on at the near post for Jovo Lukić to head home from close range. Edin Džeko gives them another aerial threat — at 40 he’s still a sharp finisher and dangerous in the box — but the USA’s back three should be able to keep him quiet. If Bosnia and Herzegovina are to trouble the USA, it’ll likely come from a set-piece again.
Team USA should have a starting eleven capable of matching Bosnia and Herzegovina’s physicality. Their tallest outfield players, Chris Richards and Alexander Freeman, come in at 6’2″, giving up height to a Bosnia and Herzegovina side with three outfield players at 6’4″ and one at 6’3″. But Australia posed a similar problem — a back three at 6’3″, 6’4″ and 6’6″ — and couldn’t trouble the USA from set-pieces. The Socceroos managed just five shots all game, all from around the edge of the box, totaling 0.35 xG.
In USA’s opening two games, they dominated possession, seeing 65% and 62%, respectively. I expect much the same here, with Bosnia and Herzegovina likely to sit deep and frustrate in the same way Paraguay and Australia tried to. That puts the onus on the USA to break down a low block, and the responsibility on Pulišić to find or create the space needed to assist or score against this stubborn defense.
If this turns into the physical, intense battle it promises to be, substitutes will matter. The problem for Bosnia and Herzegovina is a lack of squad depth, leaving Barbarez with limited options from the bench if he has to chase the game. Pochettino has no such issue — he can call on Ricardo Pepi, Tim Weah, Gio Reyna, Brenden Aaronson and more to change the shape or ask a different question of the Bosnia and Herzegovina defense.
THE BET
With the USA favored and the overwhelming public support and money backing them, it’s difficult to find value here.
Looking through the markets, I’m drawn to USA Win to Zero (+105). Given how well they contained Australia, I’d be tempted if I wasn’t so wary of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s set-piece quality — as noted above, their European experience, know-how and height advantage could cause more problems than Australia did.
USA -1.5 on the spread (+105) is another enticing option. I expect the USA to dominate possession early, find a breakthrough, and force Bosnia and Herzegovina to step out of their defensive shell and chase the game. That should leave space for the USA to add a second, but with nothing to lose, Bosnia and Herzegovina could nick a set-piece goal with sustained pressure late on.
Instead, I’m backing USA Win and Under 3.5 Goals (+100) in the Match Parlays section on DraftKings. As we saw against Australia, I think Pochettino will look to shut up shop if USA go 2-0 up. Even if Bosnia and Herzegovina get one back, a scoreline of 2-1 still lands this at even money — and the Under 3.5 gives us an extra goal of cushion compared to the standard 2.5 line being offered.
Back the USA to record a comfortable win in 90 minutes, end that European hoodoo, and book a Round of 16 meeting with Belgium or Senegal.
Pick: USA Win and Under 3.5 Goals (+100)
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