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Game 5: Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
It’s a little hard to imagine the Magic losing Game 5 by double digits, but that’s also how I felt about Game 2. Given how good this Orlando team is defensively — and how tough the team has been on the glass in this series — it would take a surprising offensive performance from Detroit in order to win this one convincingly. However, the Pistons did get a little lucky with Franz Wagner having injured his calf towards the end of Game 4. Wagner hasn’t been ruled out for Game 5 just yet, but I’d be stunned if he’s out there. Wagner has been an injury-prone player throughout his career, so it’d be a bit short-sighted of Orlando to let him go with a 3-1 series lead. The Magic should simply hope they can win without him. If they can’t, they’ll get him back a little healthier in a home Game 6, or much healthier in a road Game 7.
Either way, Wagner’s questionable status makes it hard to fully buy into Orlando here. I might play the Magic in the KillerSports Playoff Challenge, but I’m not actually adding a slip. I am, however, backing Jalen Suggs to have at least five assists in this game, and I’m also laddering that up to eight assists.
Suggs hasn’t had much success as a passer in this series, recording four or fewer assists in all four games. However, in the final 10 games that Suggs played without Wagner this season, he averaged 6.0 assists per game and had at least eight assists in two of them. One of those two games was a 12-assist performance against the Pistons on April 6.
There’s a good chance Suggs will have a bigger role as an on-ball creator here. And while the same can also be said about Paolo Banchero and Desmond Bane, there’s just some good recent numbers that suggest 4.5 is too low of a total in a game Wagner might not play.
Suggs also had his two best games as a passer in the first two games in this series. While he had only four assists in both of those games, he did average 7.5 potential assists and 5.5 adjusted assists per game. With some better luck, he could have easily reached the five-assist mark.
Bet: Jalen Suggs Over 4.5 Assists (-118 – 1.5 units) & Alt Assists 6+ (+166 – 0.5 units) & Alt Assists 7+ (+317 – 0.25 units) & Alt Assists 8+ (+592 – 0.1 units)
Game 5: Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:00 pm ET
It sounds like the Lakers will get Austin Reaves back on Wednesday. That should be huge for Los Angeles’ offense, as the team can use some more on-ball creation against a good Houston defense. Well, as long as Reaves is even remotely healthy, he’ll give the Lakers some off-the-dribble juice, another knockdown three-point shooter, and somebody that can make plays for teammates. However, at the same time, Reaves is a weak perimeter defender when he’s fully healthy. That could mean that he’ll really struggle at the point of attack coming off a lengthy absence, and there is a chance he cuts into Marcus Smart’s minutes. That would be another blow to Los Angeles’ defense, as Smart is tremendous at playing feisty, physical defense on the perimeter.
The Over has also hit in back-to-back games in this series. The two teams combined for 220 points in Game 3, then they combined for 211 in Game 4. I see this one falling somewhere in between with a bit of an increase in shotmaking.
The Over also happens to be 18-10 when Los Angeles plays with at least two days of rest under JJ Redick, which isn’t surprising considering his ability to get his team ready from an X’s-and-O’s standpoint. On top of that, the Over is 4-2 in the six games Los Angeles has played with totals between 200 and 209.5 under Redick.
Bet: Over 207.5 (-115)
Additional Plays
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