MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, April 29.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde owns a solid 3.42 ERA this season, but his 4.88 fielding independent is a concern with just 5.5 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings. Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has a 6.21 ERA, but his 3.72 fielding independent with 9.9 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings points toward improvement. He is backed by a lineup that entered Tuesday third in road scoring with nearly 5.8 runs per game, while the White Sox rank 25th in home run production at 3.7 runs per game.
Pick: Angels Moneyline -120 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Angels -137 and Total 8.8
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has a 3.28 ERA to begin the season, but his 4.45 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 4.8 walks per nine innings allowed is a concern. Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen owns a 2.45 ERA, but his 4.10 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs per nine innings is also worrisome. Both bullpens have been shaky to start the season, with the Guardians ranking 21st in ERA at 4.57 and the Rays 26th at 5.16.
Pick: Rays vs. Guardians Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
1:40 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley has gotten off to a solid start with a 2.91 ERA, allowing 1.1 home runs while recording 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Mariners lineup that entered Tuesday 28th in road scoring with 3.3 runs per game. Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby owns a 2.97 ERA, but his 3.82 fielding independent with just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings is a concern, and he has notable home/road splits for his career, posting a 3.05 ERA at home compared to a 4.05 ERA on the road.
Pick: Twins Moneyline +112
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -113
3:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has bounced back from a rough 2025 season, leading the National League with 41 1/3 innings pitched while posting a 3.05 ERA through six starts. Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow has also been strong with a 2.45 ERA and 2.25 fielding independent, recording 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing just 0.5 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings. While the Dodgers rank second in scoring with nearly 5.7 runs per game, they have produced less at home, averaging five runs per game compared to 6.5 on the road.
Pick: Marlins vs. Dodgers Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
4:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
Both starting pitchers have struggled to begin the season, with Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon posting a 4.55 ERA and 6.03 fielding independent while allowing 2.3 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings. Padres starting pitcher Matt Waldron has allowed two home runs and 12 total runs in just 8 2/3 innings. However, both teams are now in a pitcher-friendly environment, and both bullpens have been solid, with the Padres entering the weekend ranked in the top five in bullpen ERA at 3.14 and the Cubs ranking 13th at 3.87.
Pick: Cubs vs. Padres Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
6:35 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Astros’ pitching staff has struggled mightily, ranking last in team ERA at 5.97 entering Tuesday, but starting pitcher Peter Lambert has been a bright spot with a 3.27 ERA and 1.86 fielding independent across two starts, recording 16 strikeouts in 11 innings. Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has struggled with control, posting a 6.75 ERA with more walks than strikeouts, issuing 5.5 walks compared to 4.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The Astros offense ranks fifth in scoring with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Astros Moneyline +105
Greg’s Handicap: Astros -109
6:40 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Rockies starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano has a solid 3.42 ERA, but his 4.84 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings suggests regression. Reds starting pitcher Brandon Williamson owns a 5.40 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings but is backed by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA at 2.91. He faces a Rockies lineup that ranked last in road scoring last season with 2.8 runs per game and is 27th this season with 3.5 runs per game away from home.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -145
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -189
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has gotten off to a shaky start with a 4.86 ERA and a 3.2 walks per nine innings rate, his highest since 2020. Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez has been one of the bright spots for Philadelphia, posting a 2.92 ERA with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA at 4.28, and the Phillies offense could see improvement at home after ranking third in scoring at home last season with 5.3 runs per game but sitting 24th this season at 3.7.
Pick: Giants vs. Phillies Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
7:15 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves
Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal has a 2.72 ERA this season, but his 1.97 fielding independent with just one home run allowed across 36 1/3 innings shows how dominant he has been. Braves starting pitcher JR Ritchie is making just his second career start after allowing two runs in seven innings in his debut and posting a 0.99 ERA in five Triple-A starts this season. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA at 3.14, while the Braves lineup ranks 20th in road scoring at 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Tigers vs. Braves Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
7:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat has struggled to begin the season, posting a 6.45 ERA with two home runs and 5.2 walks per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodríguez owns a 2.89 ERA, but his 4.99 fielding independent with 5.8 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings is concerning. Both teams entered the series tied for eighth in scoring at 4.9 runs per game, while the Diamondbacks bullpen ranks 22nd in ERA at 4.67.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
9:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics
Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino has struggled with command this season, posting a 5.17 ERA with six walks per nine innings. Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha has a 2.51 ERA, but his 3.62 fielding independent suggests possible regression, and the bullpen behind him ranks third-worst in the league with a 5.75 ERA. The Athletics offense ranks 10th in home scoring with 5.1 runs per game, while the Royals rank last in road scoring with 2.5 runs per game.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline -120 and Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -140 and Total 9.3
