Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, May 16, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: TEX is 14-3 (+8.31 units) in the last 17 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-149 at HOU)
* Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 210-262 for -52.39 units (ROI: -11.1%) since the start of last season.
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+141 at SEA)
Trend: TOR is just 6-14 (-11.01 units) in road games this season
Trend: DET is 18-8 (+9.74 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since start of 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-120 vs TOR)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 81-63 start for -3.40 units and an ROI of -2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-101 at STL), BALTIMORE (-108 at WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-171 at PIT), CLEVELAND (-163 vs CIN)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a GO AGAINST angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 7-8 for -2.89 units and an ROI of -19.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-114 vs CHC), LA ANGELS (+119 vs LAD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another GO AGAINST angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 26-36 for -14.03 units and an ROI of -22.6%!
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+141 at SEA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 90-65 start for -7.12 units and an ROI of -4.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-171 at PIT), TEXAS (-149 at HOU), BOSTON (+109 at ATL), SEATTLE (-171 vs SD), LA DODGERS (-125 at NYM)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 48-57 for +10.83 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+119 vs AZ), CINCINNATI (+135 at CLE)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 82-101 for -10.26 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-101 at STL), BALTIMORE (-108 at WSH), CHICAGO CUBS (-105 at CWS), SAN DIEGO (+141 at SEA), NY METS (+104 vs NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (+113 at ATH)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 52-61 start for -2.55 units (ROI -2.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-120 vs KC), CINCINNATI (+135 at CLE)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 45-52 for -0.74 units.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+119 vs LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2048-1943 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.81 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2065-2640 (43.9%) for -273.55 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON, BALTIMORE, TEXAS, TORONTO
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 625-513 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +32.44 units, for an ROI of 2.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, LA ANGELS
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 217-251 SU but for +44.14 units (ROI: 9.4%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+119 vs AZ)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 510-587 SU but for +67.12 units (ROI: 6.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+120 at TB), SAN FRANCISCO (+113 at ATH), BOSTON (+109 at ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 293-302 run (+13.83 units, ROI: 2.3%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-101 at STL), LA ANGELS (+119 vs LAD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -105 (+31 diff), BALTIMORE -108 (+25)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -143 (+24 diff), TEXAS -149 (+21), DETROIT -120 (+19), CLEVELAND -163 (+19), TAMPA BAY -144 (+17)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5), LAD-LAA OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), BAL-WSH UNDER 10 (-0.6), KC-STL UNDER 9 (-0.5), PHI-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) PHILADELPHIA (22-23) at (954) PITTSBURGH (24-21)
Trend: PHI is 32-7 (+18.97 units) in favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-171 at PIT)
(955) TORONTO (19-25) at (956) DETROIT (20-25)
Trend: TOR is just 6-14 (-11.01 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-101 at DET)
Trend: DET is 18-8 (+9.74 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-120 vs TOR)
(957) TEXAS (21-23) at (958) HOUSTON (18-28)
Trend: TEX is 14-3 (+8.31 units) in the last 17 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-149 at HOU)
(959) KANSAS CITY (19-26) at (960) ST LOUIS (26-18)
Trend: Under the total is 10-2-1 (+7.80 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-STL (o/u at 9)
(961) BALTIMORE (20-25) at (962) WASHINGTON (22-23)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 28-15 (+6.76 units) when he starts in day games vs opponents with a losing record in L6+ seasons
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 17-6 (+10.22 units) when he starts vs NL East opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-108 at WSH)
(963) MIAMI (20-25) at (964) TAMPA BAY (29-14)
Trend: TB is 15-4 (+10.86 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-144 vs MIA)
(965) CINCINNATI (24-21) at (966) CLEVELAND (24-22)
Trend: Chris Paddack’s teams are 3-13 (-9.17 units) when he starts as a +105 or more road underdog since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+135 at CLE)
(969) CHICAGO-NL (29-16) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (22-22)
Trend: CHC is 14-6 (+6.13 units) in the last 20 versus AL Central opponents with starter Jameson Taillon`
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-105 at CWS)
(971) NEW YORK-AL (28-17) at (972) NEW YORK-NL (18-26)
Trend: Under the total is 17-6-2 (+10.40 units) in NYY road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-NYM (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Carlos Rodon’s teams are 6-16 (-18.50 units) in his last 22 road starts vs NL opponents
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-125 at NYM)
(973) BOSTON (18-26) at (974) ATLANTA (31-14)
Trend: Under the total is 15-5-2 (+9.50 units) in ATL home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: ATL is 14-3 (+10.99 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-126 vs BOS)
(975) SAN DIEGO (26-18) at (976) SEATTLE (22-24)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 21-10 (+9.12 units) when he starts vs AL opponents since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+141 at SEA)
(979) SAN FRANCISCO (18-27) at (980) ATHLETICS (23-21)
Trend: Under the total is 18-5-2 (+12.50 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
Trend: Luis Severino is 32-16 (+13.83 units) against teams with a losing record in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-136 vs SF)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #20: Baltimore at Washington, Fri 5/15-Sun 5/17
Trend: Under the total is 18-3 (85.7%, +14.75 units) in the last 21 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 70.2%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-WSH (o/u at 10)
Series #30: Texas at Houston, Fri 5/15-Sun 5/17
Trend: Road teams are on a 34-23 (59.6%, +18.59 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas
– The ROI on this trend is 32.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-149 at HOU)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): BALTIMORE, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE, ATLANTA, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Thursday, May 21)
