NASCAR All-Star Race Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
We got back on the winning track Sunday at NASCAR’s Go Bowling at The Glen, as heavily favored Shane Van Gisbergen took home the checkered flag at -135 odds. While those odds were ridiculous, a win is a win, and I’ll never take that for granted in sports betting. We all get enough results that go the opposite way, so there’s never a need to discount a winning wager. We also scored six top-10 accurate projections as well on our final simulation, and that netted us +2.05 units of profit.
The season is now one-third in, and it’s been a strong start for our simulations, carrying on the momentum we finished the 2025 season with. However, the series takes a week break from point racing to host its All-Star event for the first time from Dover International Speedway, affectionately known as the Monster Mile. Denny Hamlin is the man to beat this week, as he has won back-to-back races at Dover and is atop my informal simulation for the race.
Because the all-star race format is unique, there will be no formal simulation for Sunday. However, I will present you with a 1-36 rundown of the would-be projections for the eligible drivers.
Once a two-race per-year staple on the NASCAR schedule, Dover has recently seen that figure drop to a single annual points race event. For 2026, this all-star race is the only stop at what was formerly a popular track among fans and bettors. I say that not only because the race track is located right next to a horse betting and casino venue but also because this track boasts a grade of B+ on my handicap-ability scale. Thus, the races here have proven reasonably predictable using statistical models. That is the main reason I am doing this informal simulation for readers. Plus, the race makes for good TV viewing, too, since the winner takes home $1 million.
One reason I’m disappointed that NASCAR doesn’t run more often at Dover Motor Speedway is that it’s a unique track. While most are asphalt, Dover is a concrete oval with 24-degree banking, which is pretty steep by most tracks’ standards. In fact, the surface and banking give this track a feel like Bristol in some ways, although Dover is one mile and Bristol is just a half-mile. Recent races have come down to pit strategy, but speed and handling are also of utmost importance. In terms of the simulation factors, drivers’ recent momentum has proven most important.
All-Star Race format
The full field of 36 full-time drivers will compete in Segment 1 and Segment 2 for 75 laps each, followed by the final 200-lap segment of the NASCAR All-Star race featuring 26 drivers. Nineteen are currently locked into the 26-driver field. Six others will be determined after Segment 2, and one spot is reserved for the top fan vote-getter not among the 25.
The lineup will be set in qualifying on Saturday for Segment 1. Segment 2 will feature the top 26 finishers inverted at the start, while the remainder of the field will line up based on their Segment 1 finishing positions.
All laps will count in all three segments, with standard NASCAR race procedures in effect. There will be a competition break at or around Lap 225 in the final segment.
You can see the list of LOCKED IN DRIVERS in BOLD in my projected simulation results below.
Watkins Glen wrap-up
Before digging into what to look for statistically at Dover, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened last week at Watkins Glen, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 12 races.
Initial Watkins Glen simulation winner: winner SVG (+1 units) – NOW -1 units for the season
Final Watkins Glen Simulation winner: winner SVG (+1 units) – NOW +26.5 units for the season
Final Watkins Glen Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: one winner, one loser – total return +0 units – NOW +24.8 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Watkins Glen projections: one winner, two losers, SV-400 – total return -1 unit – NOW +0.45 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Watkins Glen projections: one winner, four losers, SVG -900 – total return -3 units – Now +1.3 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Watkins Glen projections: six winners (SVG, Cindric, Gibbs, McDowell, Reddick, Briscoe), four losers, – total return +2.05 units – Now +6.6 units for the season
We are still recovering from the losses at Talladega a few weeks ago, but we got some of it back at Watkins Glen. Hopefully, getting back into some higher-graded handicap-ability tracks like Dover will help fully restore our profits.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
My personal top 5 Watkins Glen predictions: two winners, three losers – SVG -900, Gibbs +120 – total return -0.8 units – Now -13.4 units for the season
Top Watkins Glen Long Shots to win: five losers –total return -5 units – Now +15 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Watkins Glen: Larson (23rd), Hamlin (16th), Elliott (24th), Wallace (29th) – Now 35 for 45 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.
Looking ahead to Dover on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the races in the next-gen car over the last four seasons that have been run at this one-mile, 24-degree high-banked concrete oval. Denny Hamlin is the most recent winner here, doing it in both 2024 and 2025. Before that, it was the now-retired Martin Truex Jr. winning in 2023 and Chase Elliott doing so in 2022.
Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Dover
1. Kyle Busch: 5.5
2. Shane Van Gisbergen: 6
3. Christopher Bell: 7.33
4. Denny Hamlin: 8.5
5. Chris Buescher: 9
…
30. Cole Custer: 29.5
31. John Hunter Nemechek: 31
32. Todd Gilliland: 31
33. Riley Herbst: 32
34. ZaneSmith: 33.5
Average PRACTICE SPEED last four races at Dover
1. Ryan Blaney: 6.67
2. Chase Elliott: 7
3. Ryan Preece: 7
4. Brad Keselowski: 7.67
5. Denny Hamlin: 8
…
27. Erik Jones: 30
28. John Hunter Nemechek: 30
29. Cole Custer: 31
30. Ty Dillon: 33
31. Noah Gragson: 34
32. Todd Gilliland: 34.5
Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Dover
1. Alex Bowman: 6.67
2. Denny Hamlin: 6.75
3. Chase Elliott: 7
4. William Byron: 8
5. Ross Chastain: 8
6. Kyle Larson: 8.33
…
30. Ty Dillon: 27
31. Cole Custer: 28.5
32. Todd Gilliland: 30
33. Riley Herbst: 30
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 35
Average LAPS LED last four races at Dover
1. Chase Elliott: 77.75
2. Denny Hamlin: 68.5
3. William Byron: 64.33
4. Ross Chastain: 61.33
5. Kyle Busch: 40.5
…
18. Ryan Preece: 0
19. Austin Cindric: 0
20. Joey Logano: 0
21. Tyler Reddick: 0
22. AJ Allmendinger: 0
23. Ricky Stenhouse: 0
24. Michael McDowell: 0
25. Carson Hocevar: 0
26. Zane Smith: 0
27. Austin Dillon: 0
28. Erik Jones: 0
29. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
30. Cole Custer: 0
31. Ty Dillon: 0
32. Todd Gilliland: 0
33. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
34. Riley Herbst: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Dover
1. Denny Hamlin: 116.33
2. Chase Elliott: 112
3. Ross Chastain: 109.9
4. Kyle Larson: 106.9
5. Alex Bowman: 105.37
6. Kyle Busch: 98.85
7. Christopher Bell: 97.97
…
30. Ty Dillon: 44.35
31. Cole Custer: 43.4
32. Riley Herbst: 39.8
33. Todd Gilliland: 38.13
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 32
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Dover
1. Alex Bowman: 395.33
2. Chase Elliott: 376.75
3. Denny Hamlin: 350.5
4. Kyle Larson: 334
5. William Byron: 330
6. Ty Gibbs: 327
…
29. Ty Dillon: 6.5
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 6
31. John Hunter Nemechek: 5
32. Carson Hocevar: 2
33. Todd Gilliland: 0.33
34. Riley Herbst: 0
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Dover
1. Kyle Larson: 4
2. Alex Bowman: 5.33
3. Ross Chastain: 5.67
4. Chase Elliott: 5.75
5. Denny Hamlin: 7
…
30. Zane Smith: 23
31. Ty Dillon: 23.5
32. Riley Herbst: 24
33. Todd Gilliland: 26
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 30
Informal Dover simulation
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Dover are, in order, Hamlin, Elliott, Larson, Chastain, Bowman. In terms of Track Designation ratings (HIGH BANKED CONCRETE), the top guys are Hamlin, Blaney, Briscoe, Gibbs, Hocever. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Reddick, Hamlin, Blaney, Gibbs, Larson, All of it goes into the making of my informal simulation, which can be seen just below, with drivers locked into the final segment in BOLD…
Rank, Driver (Car/Team), Proj. Qual, Proj. Prac, Driver Rtg., Avg. Fin.
1. Denny Hamlin (#11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) 4, 5, 103.68, 5.466
2. Ryan Blaney (#12 Penske Racing Ford) 6, 1, 100.68, 6.273
3. Chase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) 10, 2, 94.54, 8.114
4. Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) 3, 11, 93.04, 8.57
5. Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) 16, 12, 89.57, 9.951
6. Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing Toyota) 7, 9, 88.76, 10.237
7. Chase Briscoe (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) 9, 15, 86.98, 10.842
8. Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) 17, 25, 86.21, 11.068
9. Chris Buescher (#17 RFK Racing Ford) 5, 19, 85.91, 11.165
10. Alex Bowman (#48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) 8, 21, 85.87, 11.197
11. Ross Chastain (#1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet) 11, 16, 83.11, 12.659
12. William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) 13, 20, 82.26, 13.069
13. Kyle Busch (#8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet) 1, 18, 81.11, 13.562
14. Joey Logano (#22 Penske Racing Ford) 12, 8, 80.24, 13.937
15. Darrell Wallace (#23 23XI Racing Toyota) 24, 14, 79.06, 14.437
16. Brad Keselowski (#6 RFK Racing Ford) 14, 4, 78.89, 14.525
17. Ryan Preece (#60 RFK Racing Ford) 18, 3, 77.06, 15.342
18. Austin Cindric (#2 Penske Racing Ford) 19, 7, 75.39, 16.178
19. Carson Hocevar (#77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet) 25, 26, 72.55, 17.435
20. Shane Van Gisbergen (#97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet) 2, 6, 70.08, 18.552
21. Josh Berry (#21 Wood Brothers Ford) 15, 10, 69.91, 18.589
22. AJ Allmendinger (#16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet) 23, 13, 68.81, 18.999
23. Ricky Stenhouse (#47 HYAK Motorsports Chevrolet) 22, 17, 64.83, 20.86
24. Michael McDowell (#71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet) 28, 22, 64.7, 20.944
25. Daniel Suarez (#7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet) 20, 23, 63.6, 21.361
26. Erik Jones (#43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota) 27, 29, 60.6, 22.712
27. Connor Zilisch (#88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet) 21, 24, 59.41, 23.257
28. Zane Smith (#38 Front Row Motorsports Ford) 36, 27, 55.76, 24.936
29. Noah Gragson (#4 Front Row Motorsports Ford) 26, 35, 54.02, 25.708
30. Austin Dillon (#3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet) 30, 28, 53.67, 25.89
31. John Hunter Nemechek (#42 Legacy Motor Club Toyota) 33, 30, 49.97, 27.757
32. Riley Herbst (#35 23XI Racing Toyota) 34, 33, 46.55, 29.356
33. Todd Gilliland (#34 Front Row Motorsports Ford) 32, 36, 45.45, 29.844
34. Ty Dillon (#10 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet) 29, 34, 44.23, 30.389
35. Cole Custer (#41 Haas Factory Team Ford) 31, 31, 44.11, 30.434
36. Cody Ware (#51 Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet) 35, 32, 39.27, 32.682
Here are my personal predictions:
Top 5: Hamlin, Blaney, Reddick, Elliott, Bell
Top underdogs to consider: Briscoe, Gibbs, Bowman, Chastain
Favorites to struggle: Logano, Wallace, Keselowski
The 400-lap, three-segment event at Dover is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 17.
