Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, May 30, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 75-43 SU for +16.53 units (ROI: 14%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-121 at CWS)
Trend: Over the total is 12-0 (+12.00 units) when SD is favored within -115 to -165 line range against NL teams with starter Michael King since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SD-WSH (o/u at 7.5)
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 166-89 SU (+41.56 units, ROI: 16.3%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-117 at COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 98-79 start for -6.00 units and an ROI of -3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-121 at CWS), NY METS (-132 vs MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (-131 at STL), SEATTLE (-157 vs AZ)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 36-46 for -13.17 units and an ROI of -16.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-117 at HOU), LA DODGERS (-126 vs PHI)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 65-78 for +8.68 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+105 vs TOR), CINCINNATI (+109 vs ATL), ST LOUIS (+108 vs CHC), COLORADO (-103 vs SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 32-43 for -9.22 units and an ROI of -12.3%.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+100 vs DET)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 58-66 for -1.27 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+101 at TEX), MINNESOTA (+119 at PIT), MIAMI (+109 at NYM), ATHLETICS (+128 vs NYY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2072-1961 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -264.55 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-122 vs KC), NY METS (-132 vs MIA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2100-2674 (44%) for -271.65 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+101 at TEX), PHILADELPHIA (+105 at LAD)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 376-189 (66.5%) for +51.42 units and an ROI of 9.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-155 vs AZ), LA DODGERS (-126 vs PHI)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 166-89 SU (+41.56 units, ROI: 16.3%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-117 at COL)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 75-43 SU for +16.53 units (ROI: 14%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-121 at CWS)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 528-605 SU but for +70.90 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 177-197 SU for +33.22 units in the last 374 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+119 at PIT), KANSAS CITY (+101 at TEX), LA ANGELS (+125 at TB), BOSTON (+109 at CLE), MIAMI (+109 at NYM), ARIZONA (+128 at SEA), PHILADELPHIA (+105 at LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 299-310 run (+11.67 units, ROI: 1.9%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-117 at COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 248-166 in their last 414 tries (+34.58 units, ROI: 8.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-126 vs PHI), NY YANKEES (-155 at ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 164-157 (-56.98 units, ROI: -17.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-126 vs PHI), NY YANKEES (-155 at ATH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +100 (+17 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN DIEGO -126 (+31 diff), ATLANTA -132 (+30), LA DODGERS -126 (+24)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SD-WSH OVER 7.5 (+0.9), TOR-BAL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), CHC-STL OVER 8 (+0.7), LAA-TB OVER 7 (+0.6), AZ-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5), BOS-CLE OVER 6.5 (+0.5), MIA-NYM OVER 7 (+0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) SAN DIEGO (32-24) at (952) WASHINGTON (29-29)
Trend: Over the total is 12-0 (+12.00 units) when SD is favored within -115 to -165 line range against NL teams with starter Michael King since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SD-WSH (o/u at 7.5)
(953) MIAMI (26-32) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (24-33)
Trend: Over the total is 18-4-2 (+13.60 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-NYM (o/u at 7)
(957) ATLANTA (39-19) at (958) CINCINNATI (29-27)
Trend: ATL is 22-9 (+15.68 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 at CIN)
(963) DETROIT (22-36) at (964) CHICAGO-AL (30-27)
Trend: DET is 8-22 (-16.75 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-121 at CWS)
(967) KANSAS CITY (22-35) at (968) TEXAS (26-31)
Trend: Under the total is 17-7-2 (+9.30 units) in TEX home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-TEX (o/u at 8)
(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (22-36) at (970) TAMPA BAY (35-19)
Trend: TB is 20-5 (+14.50 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-168 vs LAA)
(971) BOSTON (23-33) at (972) CLEVELAND (34-25)
Trend: Sonny Gray’s teams are 11-2 (+10.00 units) when he starts as a road underdog between line range +105 to +115 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: Sonny Gray’s teams are 12-3 (+7.87 units) when he starts vs AL Central opponents in day games in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+108 at CLE)
(977) MILWAUKEE (34-20) at (978) HOUSTON (26-33)
Trend: Over the total is 17-9-1 (+7.10 units) in HOU home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
(979) ARIZONA (31-25) at (980) SEATTLE (29-29)
Trend: Over the total is 14-5-3 (+8.35 units) when AZ is on the road and faces teams with a >= 0.480 win pct with starter Ryne Nelson since start of 2024 season, going over the listed total by 2.32 runs on average
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-SEA (o/u at 7)
Trend: SEA is 10-20 (-9.05 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs AZ)
Trend: SEA is 23-6 (+14.34 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-157 vs AZ)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Fri 5/29-Sun 5/31
Trend: COLORADO is 10-37 (21.3%, -21.79 units) in their last 47 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -46.4%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (-103 vs SF)
Series #33: Detroit at Chicago White Sox, Fri 5/29-Sun 5/31
Trend: DETROIT has won 14 of its last 18 (77.8%, +7.40 units) games when visiting the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 41.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-121 at CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, SEATTLE
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, June 1)
