MLB Best Bets Today May 30
A big evening on the diamond doesn’t really get going until 4:05 p.m. ET, as we only have one game earlier than that on the schedule. Eight games are in that 4 p.m. hour and we have a lot of closely-lined games in that window and also the nighttime slate, so there’s plenty to think about on this Saturday.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 30:
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction
Pick: Blue Jays -126
The reigning AL champs are on a heater. They’ve won 11 of 15 and have finally started to hit the ball with a little authority, entering today’s game tied for eighth with 10 HR over the last seven days. It was only a matter of time before all of their contact started to bear fruit and it seems to be that time.
They shouldn’t need to generate a lot of run support today with Trey Yesavage on the hill. He’s got a 2.25 ERA with a 2.00 xERA and a 1.91 FIP over six starts. His season got off to a delayed start and Toronto brought him along slowly with four minor league rehab outings, but since he’s come back to The Show, he’s been the same demon that he was last season. He’s struck out 35 in 32 innings and hasn’t allowed a home run yet. In fact, he’s only allowed three Barrels for a 3.7% Barrel% and a 26.8% Hard Hit%.
The Jays also have the fifth-ranked bullpen in reliever ERA over the last two weeks, as the Jeff Hoffman situation has sorted itself out. With Hoffman and Louie Varland unavailable yesterday, others picked up the slack. This just seems like a team that has found a rhythm.
The Orioles have never really found a rhythm this season and their bullpen has a 6.26 ERA with a 5.04 xERA over the last 14 days, including last night’s meltdown. Tonight, Craig Albernaz hopes to get some length out of Brandon Young, who has a 3.47 ERA with a 4.27 xERA and a 4.74 FIP. I’m definitely concerned about Young as it warms up because he’s not inducing the same rate of ground balls that he always has and his K% is depressed this season. He’s also walking nearly 10% of opposing batters.
Young only has a 23.3% CSW%, which is well below league average. His 64.2% F-Strike% is solid, but the Blue Jays are a hyper-aggressive lineup and I think they can make Young pay for just pouring fastballs into the zone early in counts.
Toronto should be able to keep it rolling in today’s tilt.
Twins vs. Pirates Prediction
Pick: Twins +119
Bailey Ober and Mitch Keller are the listed starters for this one and are sort of like the Spiderman meme. Keller has 46 K in 64.1 innings and Ober has 43 in 62, so these are two pitch-to-contact right-handers who are trying to get by on pitch mix and deception. Ober is 6-foot-9, which adds an extra degree to facing him.
Ober has a 3.92 ERA with a 3.74 xERA and a 4.48 FIP, while Keller has a 3.64 ERA with a 4.20 xERA and a 3.47 FIP, as he’s only allowed four homers whereas Ober has allowed nine, accounting for most of the difference in FIP between the two guys. Ober’s Barrel% is 9.4% and Keller’s is 5.3%, but PNC Park isn’t really known for being a hitter’s haven and that should help Ober in this one.
Minnesota has the better relief numbers of late, despite yesterday’s blown save loss. Over the last 14 days, the Twins have a .313 wOBA against RHP and the Pirates have a .305 wOBA, so Minnesota’s been a little bit better in that split. This game feels like more of a coin flip to me than the line implies, leading to some line equity on Minnesota.
The starters could very well cancel out, leaving it in the hands of the bullpens, and that’s always going to be a situation with some built-in variance. Ober has also held lefties to just a .202 BA and a .258 OBP, a big deal with Pittsburgh’s best hitters coming from that side. He has given up seven of his nine homers to LHB, who do have a .454 SLG, but, again, PNC Park is 28th in HR Park Factor over the last three seasons.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Cubs -135
NL Central rivals continue their weekend set here in a battle of converted relievers. Due to injuries, the Cubs switched Ben Brown back to a starter and he’ll make his fifth consecutive start. The Cardinals did that prior to the season with Kyle Leahy and he’ll make his 11th start of the season.
Brown has stretched out to six innings and about 85 pitches, as he’s allowed four runs on 12 hits in 19 innings as a starter thus far, striking out 23 against just six walks. Brown became a starter back on May 8 and has a 1.89 ERA with a 2.96 xERA and a 1.75 FIP, posting over a strikeout per inning with a 57.8% GB%. I love backing guys like that because it’s very hard to score runs against them. He hasn’t allowed a home run yet in his starts and has a 15.9% SwStr%.
Leahy’s first season as a starter since 2022 isn’t going very well, as he sports a 4.44 ERA with a 6.31 xERA and a 4.94 FIP over 50.2 innings of work. His K% is down, his BB% is up, and his HR/FB% has nearly tripled while having to turn lineups over multiple times. He’s allowed a 50% Hard Hit% with an 11.7% Barrel% on the season, including a 64.3% HH% and a 21.4% Barrel% in his last start against the Reds.
Generally speaking, starters become relievers for two reasons – health or a lack of a third good pitch. Without a deep arsenal, many relievers wind up with platoon split issues as a starter. That’s the case for Leahy, as lefties are batting .336/.416/.555 with a .425 wOBA against him. I’d expect the Cubs’ left-handed bats to take advantage.
Chicago is sixth in bullpen ERA over the last 14 days at 2.63, as they’ve really stabilized on that front.
