Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, May 9, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: KC is 12-3 (+9.33 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-143 vs DET)
Trend: NY METS are 28-12 (70%, +13.38 units) in the last 40 games vs Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 33.5%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-115 at AZ)
* Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 92-136 SU (-22.69 units, ROI: -10%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+153 at PHI)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 74-52 start for +3.84 units and an ROI of +3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-163 vs WSH), NY METS (-115 at AZ), LA DODGERS (-181 vs ATL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 3-6 for -4.43 units and an ROI of -49.2%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (-163 vs HOU)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 77-53 start for -1.13 units and an ROI of -0.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-181 vs ATL), TORONTO (-175 vs LAA), BOSTON (-156 vs TB), NY YANKEES (-136 at MIL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 38-47 for +8.91 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+135 at MIA), COLORADO (+153 at PHI), LA ANGELS (+144 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+109 vs SEA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 71-90 for -11.43 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+104 vs PIT), ATHLETICS (+104 at BAL), TAMPA BAY (+129 at BOS), DETROIT (+119 at KC), TEXAS (+113 vs CHC), MILWAUKEE (+113 vs NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 43-51 start for -1.60 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 21-25 for -2.04 units and an ROI of -4.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – COLORADO (+153 at PHI), ST LOUIS (+119 at SD)
3+ games – WASHINGTON (+135 at MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at TEX)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 37-49 for -6.77 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+100 at CLE), ARIZONA (-105 vs NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+109 vs SEA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 443-424 (51.1%) for +20.50 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-163 vs HOU)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2043-1933 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -265.21 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-131 at CWS), COLORADO (+159 at PHI), HOUSTON (+135 at CIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,047-2,620 (43.9%) for -273.27 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4141-3592 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -512.99 units and an ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 616-510 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.99 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-175 vs LAA), TEXAS (+113 vs CHC), SAN DIEGO (-143 vs STL)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 92-136 SU (-22.69 units, ROI: -10%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+153 at PHI)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 499-573 SU but for +67.04 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 168-187 SU for +32.18 units in the last 355 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+129 at BOS), LA ANGELS (+144 at TOR), MINNESOTA (+100 at CLE), ATLANTA (+149 at LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 19-24 (+7.91 units, ROI: 18.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 97-181 (-63.96 units, ROI: -23%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-163 vs HOU)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 289-300 run (+11.24 units, ROI: 1.9%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (+119 at KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 159-150 (-51.87 units, ROI: -16.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #12:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 44-24 (+21.44 units, ROI: 31.5%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at TEX)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY +129 (+28 diff), HOUSTON +135 (+27), SAN FRANCISCO +104 (+20)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -131 (+33 diff), PHILADELPHIA -186 (+25)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CHC-TEX OVER 8 (+0.9)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.6), DET-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) WASHINGTON (19-20) at (902) MIAMI (17-22)
Trend: WSH is 15-5 (+9.11 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at MIA)
(903) COLORADO (16-23) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (17-22)
Trend: COL is 12-33 (-12.52 units) on the road last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+153 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 26-8 (+13.25 units) as a HOME favorite within -150 to -198 line range with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs COL)
Trend: PHI is 1-13 (-13.56 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs COL)
(905) ST LOUIS (23-15) at (906) SAN DIEGO (22-16)
Trend: STL is 19-12 (+11.19 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+119 at SD)
Trend: SD is 15-3 (+11.69 units) against NON-DIVISIONAL teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-143 vs STL)
(907) NEW YORK-NL (15-23) at (908) ARIZONA (17-20)
Trend: Under the total is 13-6-1 (+6.40 units) in NYM road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-AZ (o/u at 9)
(911) ATLANTA (26-13) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (24-14)
Trend: ATL is 21-8 (+10.30 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+149 at LAD)
(915) ATHLETICS (20-18) at (916) BALTIMORE (17-22)
Trend: Shane Baz’s teams are 21-12 (+9.25 units) within the -131 to +125 line range since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-126 vs ATH)
Trend: Over the total is 14-5 (+8.50 units) in BAL day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-BAL (o/u at 9.5)
(917) TAMPA BAY (25-13) at (918) BOSTON (17-22)
Trend: TB is 9-2 (+7.72 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+129 at BOS)
(919) MINNESOTA (16-23) at (920) CLEVELAND (21-19)
Trend: CLE is 29-15 (+12.70 units) within the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-120 vs MIN)
(921) SEATTLE (19-20) at (922) CHICAGO-AL (17-21)
Trend: Under the total is 12-5-1 (+6.75 units) when Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-CWS (o/u at 9.5)
(923) DETROIT (18-21) at (924) KANSAS CITY (18-21)
Trend: KC is 12-3 (+9.33 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-143 vs DET)
(925) HOUSTON (16-23) at (926) CINCINNATI (20-19)
Trend: Over the total is 12-3 (+8.70 units) when CIN is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-CIN (o/u at 8.5)
(927) CHICAGO-NL (27-12) at (928) TEXAS (17-21)
Trend: Over the total is 10-4-2 (+5.65 units) in CHC road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-TEX (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: TEX is 9-19 (-10.10 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+113 vs CHC)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #2: LA Angels at Toronto, Fri 5/8-Sun 5/10
Trend: Home teams are 17-24 (41.5%, -13.85 units) in the last 41 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays
– The ROI on this trend is -33.8%.
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-175 vs LAA)
Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Fri 5/8-Sun 5/10
Trend: NY METS are 28-12 (70%, +13.38 units) in the last 40 games vs Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 33.5%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-115 at AZ)
Series #14: St Louis at San Diego, Thu 5/7-Sun 5/10
Trend: Home teams are 20-11 (64.5%, +5.46 units) in the last 31 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 17.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-143 vs STL)
Series #32: Minnesota at Cleveland, Fri 5/8-Sun 5/10
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 37-14 (72.5%, +24.68 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 48.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-120 vs MIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): ATHLETICS, DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS, NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday, May 12)
