Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 16, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Post-All-Star Break Trends/Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays look at how teams fare coming out of the All-Star break in previous seasons. This study looks at the first three series for each team after the Midsummer Classic, unless otherwise noted.
* In the first three series post-All-Star break, games with higher totals (O/U >= 9) have gone Under at a 345-266-37 (56.5%) rate since 2016.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-PHI (o/u at 9.5)
* Teams on 3+ game losing streaks have had their totals go Over at a 15-4 (78.9%) rate in their first game back since the 2021 ASB.
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYM-PHI (o/u at 9.5)
TEAM NOTABLES (*first three series post ASB*)
* NY METS – 22-14 SU (+9.91 units) on the road since 2018 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (+115 at PHI)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 429-364 but for -84.83 units and an ROI of -10.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-139 vs NYM)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY (next few tomorrow, July 17)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots
The following situational MLB trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (40-57) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (54-43)
Trend: NYM is 8-17 (-8.52 units) as ML underdog this season
Trend: NYM is 3-11 (-7.33 units) in their last 14 games at Citizens Bank Park
Trends Match (FADE): NY METS (+115 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 4-14 (-12.10 units) in the last 18 vs NY Mets with starter Aaron Nola
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-139 vs NYM)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,182-2,763 (44.1%) for -276.72 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+115 at PHI)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 10:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors backing home favorites in the months of May, June, and July games of 2024-25 were 656-480 (57.7%) but for -137.9 units and an ROI of -12.1%, a full 3.6% worse than the normal return.
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-139 vs NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-PHI (o/u at 9.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, July 20)
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