WNBA Picks
Unfortunately, the Fever forgot how to play offense last night against the suffocating Golden State defense, and we lost our over bet in that game, but we did cash the Sky -2.5 in the early game. As a bonus, I gave out a free Lynx -6.5 live play on X that cashed. We’re back at it Thursday with a two-game slate featuring the Washington Mystics hosting the Portland Fire and the Dallas Wings hosting the New York Liberty. Here are the TSI projections for Thursday.
Washington Mystics (-6) vs Portland Fire, O/U 163.5
This line has moved towards Washington after being at 4.5 at some spots yesterday, and I think the move makes sense. Washington has been three points better at home this season, while Portland has been 3.5 points worse on the road. From a regression standpoint, Portland has been 8.5 points above their season average over the last three games, and Washington has been 2.5 points better over the last three, so Portland is due for much more negative regression here. TSI projects Mystics -5.5 with a total of 163.5, so there’s not much value to be had. I’d lean Washington based on the home/road splits and the regression numbers, plus Washington has been 2.5 points better against bottom-eight teams, while Portland has actually been three points worse against lesser opponents (Washington falls into that category, for this exercise).
Lean: Mystics -6
Dallas Wings (-1.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 177.5
This game is potentially a huge regression game; Dallas has been outplaying its season average by two points over the last three games, while New York has underperformed relative to its season average by 6.5 points over its last three. In road games against top-seven teams, New York has actually outscored opponents 86-83 on average, though Dallas has taken care of business at home for the most part, beating top-seven opponents 85-81 on average. TSI projects New York -2 with a total of 173, and I like the Liberty and the Under here. I think New York is due for some positive regression, and I think that these teams have shown a tendency to get in lower-scoring games against playoff-like competition.
Bet: Liberty +1.5 (play to pk)
Bet: Under 177.5 (Play to 176.5)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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