Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 2, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Under the total is 20-8 (71.4%, +11.14 units) in the last 28 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 39.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 443-395 record for +42.62 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-105 at TEX)
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 253-171 in their last 424 tries (+33.97 units, ROI: 8%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-126 at KC)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 28-25 for –5.63 units (ROI -10.6%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (+163 at MIL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 47-79 for -34.62 units and an ROI of -27.5%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-131 at COL), ATLANTA (-115 vs STL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 95-121 for +2.53 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect. However, it has lost almost 7.42 units the last three-and-a-half weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+109 vs MIA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 40-23 for -10.83 units, ROI -17.2%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-199 vs CIN), LA DODGERS (-198 vs SD)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 21-14 start for -10.14 units, and an ROI of -28.9%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-198 vs SD)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounceback in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 167-222 for -36.37 units. This ROI of -9.3% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-107 at CLE), DETROIT (-105 at TEX), LA ANGELS (+178 at SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 142-92 for +32.60 units, an ROI of +13.9%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-126 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 110-140 start for -25.62 units.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-219 vs LAA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 86-86 for +10.88 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+163 at MIL), SAN DIEGO (+162 at LAD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 493-392 for +44.46 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-105 at TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 451-474 but for +28.62 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+163 at MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 392-444 but for +84.85 units and an ROI of 10.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+163 at MIL), LA ANGELS (+178 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 426-361 but for -83.94 units and an ROI of -10.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (-115 vs DET)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 168-66 for +20.11 units and an ROI of 8.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-199 vs CIN), SEATTLE (-219 vs LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 443-395 record for +42.62 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-105 at TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2133-2015 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.49 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-131 vs PIT), CLEVELAND (-112 vs CWS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2163-2740 (44.1%) for -273.21 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+163 at MIL), ST LOUIS (-105 at ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-107 at CLE)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 648-540 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.48 units, for an ROI of 1.8%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+104 vs TB)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 104-150 SU (-21.93 units, ROI: -8.6%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-105 at TEX)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 253-171 in their last 424 tries (+33.97 units, ROI: 8%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-126 at KC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX -107 (+25 diff), LA ANGELS +178 (+20)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TEXAS -115 (+33 diff), PHILADELPHIA -131 (+30), MIAMI -131 (+26)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: DET-TEX OVER 7 (+0.9), STL-ATL OVER 8.5 (+0.7), MIA-COL OVER 12 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PIT-PHI UNDER 10.5 (-1.0), SD-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.5), CWS-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) CINCINNATI (39-46) at (904) MILWAUKEE (53-31)
Trend: Over the total is 25-18-1 (+5.20 units) in CIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-MIL (o/u at 7)
(905) MIAMI (46-41) at (906) COLORADO (34-53)
Trend: MIA is 22-15 (+8.46 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-131 at COL)
Trend: Under the total is 7-0 when Michael Lorenzen starts against Miami in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-COL (o/u at 12)
(907) ST LOUIS (44-39) at (908) ATLANTA (50-34)
Trend: STL is 31-15 (+9.92 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at ATL)
(909) SAN DIEGO (43-42) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (56-31)
Trend: SD is 0-3 when starter Randy Vasquez faces LAD in his career
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+162 at LAD)
Trend: Under the total is 30-21 (+6.90 units) in SD night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-LAD (o/u at 9)
(911) CHICAGO-AL (45-40) at (912) CLEVELAND (45-42)
Trend: Over the total is 29-16-1 (+11.40 units) in CWS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 8.5)
(913) TAMPA BAY (50-33) at (914) KANSAS CITY (35-52)
Trend: KC is 6-18 (-12.73 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+104 vs TB)
(915) DETROIT (38-49) at (916) TEXAS (44-43)
Trend: Framber Valdez’s teams are 13-8 (+4.92 units) when he starts as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-105 at TEX)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 19-5 (+10.31 units) when he starts at home vs opponents with a < 48% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-115 vs DET)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Thu 7/2-Sun 7/5
Trend: Under the total is 20-8 (71.4%, +11.14 units) in the last 28 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 39.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 8.5)
Series #33: Cincinnati at Milwaukee, Mon 6/29-Thu 7/2
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 38-13 (74.5%, +22.99 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 45.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-199 vs CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-219 vs LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an UNDERDOG side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): PITTSBURGH (+109 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-107 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (+104 vs TB)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, July 3)
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